Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto (w)?

By the PropickAI model, Las Vegas Aces is favoured — about 86% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto (w)?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Las Vegas Aces. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto (w)?

Live odds for Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto (w) from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Las Vegas Aces win probability ~86% confidence High best odds 1.12

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Las Vegas Aces. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

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WNBA. Outrights

29.08.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

29.08.2026 02:00 UTC

Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto (w) — Basketball prediction

Basketball

Las Vegas Aces

93 : 73

Finished

Toronto (w)

Las Vegas Aces take on Toronto (w) in basketball, in WNBA. Outrights, on 29 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Las Vegas Aces as the favourite at around 86%. Sportsbook prices (6 books) put that result at roughly 87%.

Recent form reads: Las Vegas Aces have 3 won and 2 lost of their last 5; Toronto (w) have 1 won and 4 lost of 5. Las Vegas Aces arrive on a winning run. On the Glicko scale it is 1806 for Las Vegas Aces against 1373 for Toronto (w) - a gap of 433 points. Across 2 recent head-to-head meetings between them, the full record is shown below on this page.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Las Vegas Aces (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 433 Glicko rating points, the model's 86% for Las Vegas Aces. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Las Vegas Aces — 86%

1 · Las Vegas Aces ✓ Pick85.6%

market 87%

2 · Toronto (w)14.4%

market 13%

Model estimate: win Las Vegas Aces 85.6%, win Toronto (w) 14.4%. Model favourite — Las Vegas Aces.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Las Vegas Aces

Model confidence 88% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Las Vegas Aces - Toronto (w) August 29, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Las Vegas Aces.

Line favourite market consensus: Las Vegas Aces. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.12 / 2 8.07
Glicko: Las Vegas Aces 85.6% / Toronto (w) 14.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 5.1% 6 books · best price +2.2%

1 ✓ Pick 87.2%

2 12.8%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Injuries and absences

Barker, Dzhania — Raund Konde, Mariya — Achilles Konde, Mariya — Not Injury Related Saballi, Nyara — Calf Morrou, Anisa — Knee Sayks, Brittni — Foot Mabri, Marina — Adductor

Source: gismo_stats

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Las Vegas Aces

87%

1.12

Toronto (w)

13%

8.07

Total

Over 174

50%

1.91

Under 174

50%

1.91

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Las Vegas Aces

#3GP 3926-13

Toronto (w)

#6GP 3911-28

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

2Wins0

98.5Points on average80.5

Head-to-head matches: 2 · average total 179.0 (points)

Team form

Las Vegas Aces

6-4WWLLWWLLWW

points for 88.0points against 87.7

Toronto (w)

1-9LLLLLLLWLL

points for 84.1points against 93.7

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Absences

Injuries and absences

Las Vegas Aces

Dzhania BarkerOut

Toronto (w)

Mariya KondeOut
Achilles
Mariya KondeOut
Not Injury Related
Nyara SaballiOut
Calf
Anisa MorrouOut
Knee
Brittni SayksOut
Foot
Marina MabriOut
Adductor

Injury and absence data - for reference.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

Las Vegas AcesToronto (w)

1' Goal Toronto (w)
1' Goal Las Vegas Aces
1' Goal Toronto (w)
2' Goal Las Vegas Aces
2' Goal Toronto (w)
3' Goal Las Vegas Aces
3' Goal Las Vegas Aces
5' Goal Toronto (w)
6' Goal Las Vegas Aces
7' Goal Las Vegas Aces
7' Goal Toronto (w)
7' Goal Toronto (w)
7' Goal Las Vegas Aces
8' Goal Las Vegas Aces
8' Goal Las Vegas Aces
9' Goal Las Vegas Aces
10' Goal Toronto (w)
10' Goal Las Vegas Aces
11' Goal Las Vegas Aces
11' Goal Las Vegas Aces
12' Goal Toronto (w)
12' Goal Toronto (w)
12' Goal Las Vegas Aces
12' Goal Toronto (w)
13' Goal Las Vegas Aces
14' Goal Las Vegas Aces
14' Goal Toronto (w)
14' Goal Las Vegas Aces
15' Goal Toronto (w)
15' Goal Las Vegas Aces
15' Goal Toronto (w)
15' Goal Las Vegas Aces
16' Goal Toronto (w)
16' Goal Las Vegas Aces
17' Goal Las Vegas Aces
18' Goal Toronto (w)
18' Goal Las Vegas Aces
18' Goal Las Vegas Aces
18' Goal Toronto (w)
18' Goal Toronto (w)
19' Goal Las Vegas Aces
19' Goal Las Vegas Aces
19' Goal Las Vegas Aces
19' Goal Las Vegas Aces
20' Goal Las Vegas Aces
20' Goal Las Vegas Aces
20' Goal Toronto (w)
20' Goal Las Vegas Aces
20' Goal Las Vegas Aces
22' Goal Toronto (w)
22' Goal Las Vegas Aces
23' Goal Las Vegas Aces
23' Goal Las Vegas Aces
23' Goal Toronto (w)
23' Goal Toronto (w)
24' Goal Toronto (w)
25' Goal Toronto (w)
26' Goal Las Vegas Aces
26' Goal Las Vegas Aces
27' Goal Las Vegas Aces
27' Goal Toronto (w)
28' Goal Las Vegas Aces
28' Goal Las Vegas Aces
29' Goal Toronto (w)
30' Goal Toronto (w)
30' Goal Las Vegas Aces
30' Goal Las Vegas Aces
30' Goal Toronto (w)
30' Goal Las Vegas Aces
31' Goal Las Vegas Aces
31' Goal Toronto (w)
32' Goal Las Vegas Aces
32' Goal Toronto (w)
33' Goal Las Vegas Aces
34' Goal Las Vegas Aces
34' Goal Toronto (w)
35' Goal Las Vegas Aces
35' Goal Las Vegas Aces
35' Goal Toronto (w)
35' Goal Toronto (w)

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

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Match center

Start 29.08.2026 02:00 UTC

Market 1 87.8% @ 1.12 / 2 12.2% @ 8.07

Form 6 matches

H2H 2

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Las Vegas Aces 86%

💹 Market Las Vegas Aces 87%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Las Vegas Aces - Toronto (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 2 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 0/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 93:73

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 85.6% fact: home hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.042 / LogLoss 0.156

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.2% fact: home hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.443

Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.2% fact: home hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.443

Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.2% fact: home hit / ROI 12.0% / Brier 0.256 / LogLoss 0.443

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Las Vegas Aces 87.2% 85.6% market and model agree

Toronto (w) 12.8% 14.4%

1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 85.6% / 14.4% probabilities

Rating 1,806 / 1,373 Las Vegas Aces / Toronto (w)

RD 91 / 82 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,625-1,987 / 1,210-1,537 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.31 market consensus · no value · model 14.4%

1 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 85.6%

Total

Over 14.5 2.00 market consensus · line only

Over 164.5 1.34 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Kambi BetMGM
1.90 52.6%	1.87 53.5%	—
1.95 51.3%	1.92 52.1%	—
1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%	—
1.90 52.6%	—	—
1.90 52.6%	1.93 51.8%	—
1.85 54.1%	1.88 53.2%	—
1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%	—
1.90 52.6%	—	—
—	—	1.83 54.6%
—	—	1.75 57.1%
—	—	1.72 58.1%
—	—	1.76 56.8%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
Over 173.5	1.87 53.5%	—
Over 174.5	1.90 52.6%	1.86 53.8%
Over 175.5	1.90 52.6%	1.94 51.6%
Over 176.5	1.87 53.5%	—
Over 177.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Over 178.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Over 179.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Over 180.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 173.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Under 174.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 175.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 176.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Under 177.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 178.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 179.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 180.5	1.90 52.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon	Pinnacle
	1.12 89.3%	1.09 91.7%	1.09 91.7%	1.09 91.7%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.8%
	6.30 15.9%	7.40 13.5%	7.50 13.3%	7.50 13.3%	7.10 14.1%	8.07 12.4%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 3-0-0

2026-08-29 · Las Vegas Eyses (Zh) 93:73 Toronto Tempo (Zh)

2026-08-23 · Las Vegas Eyses (Zh) 88:78 Toronto Tempo (Zh)

2026-07-21 · Las Vegas Eyses (Zh) 109:83 Toronto Tempo (Zh)

Source: ruscore

Match stats

49% Ball possession 51%

42 2-kh broskov vsego 39

22 2-kh realizovano 17

33 3-kh broskov vsego 28

10 3-kh realizovano 10

21 Shtrafnykh broskov vsego 13

19 Shtrafnykh broskov realizovano 9

38 Vsego podborov 37

10 Podbory v napadenii 7

28 Podbory v zaschite 30

20 Rezultativnye peredachi 18

4 Blok-shoty 2

7 Poteri 16

10 Perekhvaty 6

14 Fouls 22

4 Half-auty 4

0 Komandnye poteri myacha 1

6 Komandnye podbory 8

37:00 Vremya v liderstve 1:46

1 Komanda lidiruet 1

26 Maksimalnoe preimuschestvo 3

Source: ruscore

Toronto (w)

L L L L L

2026-08-19 WNBA 2026

Washington 93:82 Toronto Tempo Toronto (w)

2026-08-13 WNBA 2026

Dallas 94:88 Toronto Tempo Toronto (w)

2026-08-11 WNBA 2026

Atlanta 107:95 Toronto Tempo Toronto (w)

2026-08-07 WNBA 2026

Portland Fire 97:83 Toronto Tempo Toronto (w)

2026-08-05 WNBA 2026

Golden State 92:81 Toronto Tempo Toronto (w)

0 Wins

5 Losses

85.8 Scored

96.6 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Las Vegas Aces - Toronto (w)

Las Vegas Aces

3 matches total

Toronto (w)

Las Vegas Aces: 2 (66.7%)

Toronto (w): 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Las Vegas Aces 83:109 (2026-07-21) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 192 points (83:109, 2026-07-21) most points in a game

Match history

2026-08-23 WNBA 2026

Toronto Tempo 78:88 Las Vegas Aces

2026-07-21 WNBA 2026

Toronto Tempo 83:109 Las Vegas Aces

23.08 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA

Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)

88:78

Toronto Tempo (Zh)

Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto (w) — Basketball prediction

AI match prediction Las Vegas Aces - Toronto (w) August 29, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

League table

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Injuries and absences

Match timeline

Unlock the full AI analysis

Las Vegas Aces - Toronto (w)

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Form & head-to-head

Match stats

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions