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AI verdict

AI pick Phoenix Mercury (w) win probability ~64% confidence High best odds 1.56

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Phoenix Mercury (w). Full breakdown below.

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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
16.08.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
16.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Portland (w)

Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
85 : 88
Finished
Portland (w)
Portland (w)

Phoenix Mercury (w) take on Portland (w) on August 16, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Phoenix Mercury (w) 2-0-3, Portland (w) 3-0-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 64% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Phoenix Mercury (w) — 64%

1 · Phoenix Mercury (w) ✓ Pick64.0%
market 65%
2 · Portland (w)36.0%
market 35%

Model estimate: win Phoenix Mercury (w) 64.0%, win Portland (w) 36.0%. Model favourite — Phoenix Mercury (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Phoenix Mercury (w) (odds1.43) Score 82:78 confidence 66% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): forma VPPPV (2-3)
  • • Portlend (Zh): forma VPVVP (3-2)
  • • ochnye 1-0 (za 1)
  • • Model backs Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): probability 66% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.43)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - Portland (w) August 16, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Phoenix Mercury (w).

Line favourite market consensus: Phoenix Mercury (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.56 / 2 2.80
  • Glicko: Phoenix Mercury (w) 64.0% / Portland (w) 36.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.9% 5 books · best price +5.4%
1 ✓ Pick 64.9%
2 35.2%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Phoenix Mercury (w)
64%
1.56
Portland (w)
36%
2.80
Total
Over 92.5
50%
1.88
Under 92.5
50%
1.88

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Phoenix Mercury (w)
#6GP 3513-22
Portland (w)
#5GP 3414-20

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

3Wins5
69.0Points on average70.3

Head-to-head matches: 8 · average total 139.3 (points)

Team form

Phoenix Mercury (w)
5-5LWWWLWLLLW
points for 85.3points against 87.8
Portland (w)
4-6WLLLLLWWLW
points for 90.9points against 91.7

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 16.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 64.2% @ 1.56 / 2 35.8% @ 2.80
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Phoenix Mercury (w) 64%
💹 Market Phoenix Mercury (w) 65%
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Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - Portland (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 85:88
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 64.0% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.819 / LogLoss 1.022
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 55.6% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.618 / LogLoss 0.812
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Phoenix Mercury (w) 64.9% 64.0% market and model agree
Portland (w) 35.2% 36.0%
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 64.0% / 36.0% probabilities
Rating 1,502 / 1,497 Phoenix Mercury (w) / Portland (w)
RD 110 / 101 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,281-1,723 / 1,296-1,699 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.68 market consensus · no value · model 36.0%
1 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 64.0%
Total
Over 14.5 1.79 market consensus · line only
Over 166.5 1.27 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
— — 1.96 51.0% —
— — 1.97 50.8% —
— — 2.00 50.0% —
1.85 54.1% — 1.85 54.1% —
1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 2.12 47.2% —
1.95 51.3% — — —
1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% — —
— — 1.79 55.9% 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.80 55.6% 1.89 52.9%
— — 1.77 56.5% —
— — 1.97 50.8% —
— — 1.73 57.8% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 14.5 — — 1.79 55.9%
Over 166.5 — — 1.27 78.7%
Over 167.5 — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 168.5 — — 1.34 74.6%
Over 175.5 1.87 53.5% — —
Over 176.5 1.87 53.5% 1.94 51.6% —
Over 177.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 178.5 1.87 53.5% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 175.5 1.93 51.8% — —
Under 176.5 1.93 51.8% 1.86 53.8% —
Under 177.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 178.5 1.93 51.8% 1.94 51.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Pinnacle
1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.56 64.1% 1.48 67.6% 1.49 67.3%
2.80 35.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.70 37.0% 2.74 36.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-1
2026-08-16 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 85:88 Portlend Fayr (Zh)
2026-06-06 · Finiks Merkuri (Zh) 78:72 Portlend Fayr (Zh)
Source: ruscore

Match stats

54 Ball possession 46
40 2-kh broskov vsego 34
19 2-kh realizovano 22
27 3-kh broskov vsego 37
9 3-kh realizovano 10
25 Shtrafnykh broskov vsego 21
20 Shtrafnykh broskov realizovano 14
36 Vsego podborov 36
7 Podbory v napadenii 10
29 Podbory v zaschite 26
18 Rezultativnye peredachi 15
1 Blok-shoty 4
12 Poteri 11
5 Perekhvaty 6
20 Fouls 23
5 Half-auty 5
1 Komandnye poteri myacha 0
12 Komandnye podbory 6
1895 Vremya v liderstve 366
3 Komanda lidiruet 4
9 Maksimalnoe preimuschestvo 4
Source: ruscore
Phoenix Mercury (w)
W L L L W
12.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 94:87 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
09.08 19:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 75:95 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
07.08 23:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 72:75 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
05.08 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 82:96 Atlanta Drim (Zh)Atlanta Drim (Zh)
04.08 01:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 106:101 Chikago Skay (Zh)Chikago Skay (Zh)
2 Wins
3 Losses
85.8 Scored
90.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Portland (w)
W L W W L
15.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 84:82 Siettl Storm (Zh)Siettl Storm (Zh)
13.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 58:68 Minnesota Links (Zh)Minnesota Links (Zh)
09.08 00:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 100:93 Siettl Storm (Zh)Siettl Storm (Zh)
07.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 79:56 Toronto Tempo (Zh)Toronto Tempo (Zh)
02.08 19:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 101:106 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
84.4 Scored
81.0 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Phoenix Mercury (w) - Portland (w)

Phoenix Mercury (w)
1 matches total
Portland (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Portland (w): 1 (100%)
Biggest win Finiks Merkyuri (Zh) 78:72 (06.06 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 150 goals (78:72, 06.06 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

06.06 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
78:72
Portlend (Zh)

More predictions

Toronto (w) – Portland (w) 22.08 Golden State Valkyries (w) –Dallas Vings (Zh) 18.08 Toronto (w) – Indiana 18.08 Connecticut – LA Sparks 18.08 Las Vegas Aces – Atlanta 19.08 Chicago – NY Liberty 19.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Portland (w)?

By the PropickAI model, Phoenix Mercury (w) is favoured — about 64% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Portland (w)?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Phoenix Mercury (w). Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Phoenix Mercury (w) vs Portland (w) start?

August 16, 2026.