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Portland (w) — Washington

Basketball 23.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Favourite Washington best odds 1.58

AI analysis of team form, streaks and match statistics — full pick, probabilities and value below.

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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
23.08.2026 23:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data –Line ✓Form ✓H2H –Prediction
23.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Portland (w) vs Washington — Basketball prediction

Basketball
Portland (w)
Portland (w)
100 : 105
Finished
Washington
Washington

Portland (w) meet Washington on August 23, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Portland (w) 3-0-2, Washington 2-0-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Portland (w) - Washington August 23, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Washington. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.50 / 2 1.58

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 5 books
1 39.1%
2 60.9%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Pinnacle). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Portland (w)
39%
2.50
Washington
61%
1.58
Total
Over 166.5
50%
1.90
Under 166.5
50%
1.94

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Portland (w)
#5GP 3815-23
Washington
#3GP 3823-15

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

4Wins2
66.8Points on average62.3

Head-to-head matches: 6 · average total 129.2 (points)

Team form

Portland (w)
4-6LLWWLWWLLL
points for 90.6points against 92.9
Washington
7-3WWLLWWLWWW
points for 86.2points against 82.1

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated22.08.2026 08:51 UTC
1 40%
2 60% ✓ favourite
Score79:84 Total points: Over 161.5 Bet:P2
Per AI data Form:L-W-L-L-L / W-L-L-W-W H2H: 1:1 split, last meeting Portland won 75-56 Injuries:Luisa Geiselsoder suspended for Portland Key:Frontcourt dominance of Washington inside the paint
Details

The pre-match analysis favors Washington Mystics over Portland Fire in their upcoming WNBA regular-season matchup scheduled for August 24, 2026, at 02:00 MSK (August 23 at 16:00 local time) at the Moda Center in Portland.
Current Form Analysis
Portland Fire (Home): As an expansion team making their debut in the 2026 season, Portland has shown expected inconsistency but flashes of competitive energy. Over their last 5 matchups, they secured 1 win and dropped 4 decisions, highlighted by a notable upset victory over Washington, but overall struggling with late-game execution and roster depth.
Washington Mystics (Away): Washington enters this game as a highly functional contender with a 21-15 record. Over their last 5 games, they have recorded 3 wins and 2 losses. They rebounded well after consecutive road losses to Las Vegas by defeating Los Angeles (80-70) and Toronto (93-82) before a tough home loss against Minnesota (84-94).
Head-to-Head (H2H) Meetings
The teams have split their previous two games this season, with both matches played in Washington. On June 28, Washington edged out Portland 124-123 in a historic 4-overtime thriller. Portland extracted revenge on July 16 with a convincing 75-56 blowout victory on Washington's home floor. This will be their first meeting at the Moda Center.
Team News and Key Injuries
Portland Fire: Roster continuity remains intact, but their temporary suspension of center Luisa Geiselsoder forces extra defensive minutes onto Emily Engstler and Megan Gustafson.
Washington Mystics: No fresh crucial injuries or suspensions have been reported following their August 21 clash against Minnesota. Core contributors Kiki Iriafen, Shakira Austin, and Sonia Citron remain fully operational and active.
Market Odds and Probability Evaluation
The bookmaker odds stand at P1: 2.4 and P2: 1.6, implying a 40% win probability for Portland and 60% for Washington. This perfectly aligns with our analytical model's baseline evaluation. There is no divergence from the de-vigged market because Washington's superior offensive execution (averaging over 85 points in recent wins) balances out the revenge storyline and home-court advantage that Portland possesses.
P1 (Portland Fire Win) Probability: 40%
P2 (Washington Mystics Win) Probability: 60%
Statistical Predictions and Additional Markets
Total Points: The recommended line is set at Over/Under 161.5. Given the physical nature of Portland's defense at home and Washington's recent high-possession style, the total points are expected to go Over 161.5.
Handicap (Spread): Washington Mystics -3.5 points at odds of 1.90.
Most Likely Score: Portland Fire 79:84 Washington Mystics.
Conclusion
The main bet for this match is Washington Mystics to win (P2). Washington's dynamic frontcourt duo of Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin will dominate inside, preventing Portland from executing the perimeter-heavy game plan that gave them the win in July.

AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 40% 60% 79:84 Over 161.5 P2

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Match center
Start 23.08.2026 23:00 UTC
Market 1 38.7% @ 2.50 / 2 61.3% @ 1.58
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Match center

Portland (w) - Washington

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 100:105
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 60.7% fact: away hit / ROI 58.0% / Brier 0.308 / LogLoss 0.499
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 54.3% fact: away hit / ROI 58.0% / Brier 0.418 / LogLoss 0.611
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.57 market consensus · line only
1 2.43 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
1 0.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 13.5 2.02 market consensus · line only
Over 15.5 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
1.95 51.3% — —
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% —
1.95 51.3% 1.86 53.8% —
1.90 52.6% 1.86 53.8% —
— — 1.81 55.3%
— — 1.97 50.8%
1.85 54.1% — 2.00 50.0%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4%
1.85 54.1% 1.94 51.6% —
1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 13.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Over 15.5 — — 1.76 56.8%
Over 163.5 1.87 53.5% — —
Over 164.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 165.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 166.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 167.5 — 1.94 51.6% —
Under 163.5 1.93 51.8% — —
Under 164.5 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 165.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 166.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 167.5 — 1.86 53.8% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Pinnacle
2.43 41.2% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.50 40.0%
1.56 64.1% 1.56 64.1% 1.58 63.3% 1.58 63.3% 1.57 63.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-2
2026-08-23 · Portlend Fayr (Zh) 100:105 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
2026-07-16 · Portlend Fayr (Zh) 75:56 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
2026-06-28 · Portlend Fayr (Zh) 123:124 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
Source: ruscore

Match stats

46% Ball possession 54%
46 2-kh broskov vsego 47
23 2-kh realizovano 26
28 3-kh broskov vsego 14
13 3-kh realizovano 7
15 Shtrafnykh broskov vsego 44
15 Shtrafnykh broskov realizovano 32
25 Vsego podborov 38
7 Podbory v napadenii 9
18 Podbory v zaschite 29
21 Rezultativnye peredachi 22
2 Blok-shoty 6
12 Poteri 13
9 Perekhvaty 6
28 Fouls 13
5 Half-auty 5
1 Komandnye poteri myacha 4
5 Komandnye podbory 10
30:10 Vremya v liderstve 7:46
3 Komanda lidiruet 3
14 Maksimalnoe preimuschestvo 10
Source: ruscore
Portland (w)
L W W L W
22.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 53:58 Toronto Tempo (Zh)Toronto Tempo (Zh)
16.08 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 88:85 Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
15.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 84:82 Siettl Storm (Zh)Siettl Storm (Zh)
13.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 58:68 Minnesota Links (Zh)Minnesota Links (Zh)
09.08 00:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Portland (w) 100:93 Siettl Storm (Zh)Siettl Storm (Zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
76.6 Scored
77.2 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Washington
L W W L L
21.08 23:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Washington 84:94 Minnesota Links (Zh)Minnesota Links (Zh)
19.08 23:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Washington 93:82 Toronto Tempo (Zh)Toronto Tempo (Zh)
15.08 23:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Washington 80:70 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
14.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Washington 76:83 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
12.08 02:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Washington 76:86 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
2 Wins
3 Losses
81.8 Scored
83.0 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Portland (w) - Washington

Portland (w)
1 matches total
Washington
Portland (w): 0 (0%)
Washington: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Portlend (Zh) 75:56 (16.07 21:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 131 points (75:56, 16.07 21:00 UTC) most points in a game

Match history

16.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Portlend (Zh)
75:56
Vashington Mistiks (Zh)

More predictions

Portland (w) – Golden State Valkyries (w) 30.08 NY Liberty – Chicago 29.08 Phoenix Mercury (w) – Toronto (w) 30.08 Atlanta – Minnesota 30.08 Siettl Storm (Zh)– LA Sparks 30.08 Dallas Vings (Zh)– Connecticut 31.08

Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Portland (w) vs Washington?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Washington. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Portland (w) vs Washington?

Live odds for Portland (w) vs Washington from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Portland (w) vs Washington start?

August 23, 2026.