28.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Match prediction
Bulgaria. League 1
Slavia Sofia host Septemvri Sofia in football, in Bulgaria. League 1, on 28 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Slavia Sofia the favourite, with a win probability of about 49%. The bookmaker consensus (5 books) implies about 49% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 30%.
Latest form: Slavia Sofia 1 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost; Septemvri Sofia 1 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost. Glicko ratings: Slavia Sofia 1495, Septemvri Sofia 1438, a gap of 57 points.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 57 Glicko rating points, the model's 49% for Slavia Sofia. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Double chance — Slavia Sofia or draw 1.06
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Play-by-play
Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.50 66.7% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.58 63.3% |
| yes | 2.50 40.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.29 43.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.31 76.3% | 1.36 73.5% | 8.50 11.8% | 1.46 68.5% | 1.46 68.5% |
| 1x | 1.16 86.2% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.18 84.8% |
| x2 | 1.78 56.2% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.41 70.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.68 37.3% | |
| X | 1.93 51.8% |
| 5.30 18.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.56 64.1% |
| Over 1 | 2.27 44.1% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.27 44.1% |
| Under 1 | 1.56 64.1% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.87 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Winline | 2.01 | 3.3 | 3.45 |
| Fonbet | 1.87 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Betcity | 1.82 | 3.2 | 5 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.02 | 3.3 | 3.45 |
Slavia Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
Full head-to-head history: Slavia Sofia - Septemvri Sofia
The Slavia Sofia - Septemvri Sofia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to draw. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 28, 2026.
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