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AI verdict

AI pick Palermo win probability ~39% confidence Low best odds 2.40

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Palermo. Full breakdown below.

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Italy. Serie B
Italy. Serie B
17.08.2026 19:15 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
17.08.2026 19:15 UTC
Not started

Italy. Serie B

Palermo - Lecce

Football
Stadium Stadio Renzo Barbera
Palermo
Palermo
- : -
Not started
Lecce
Lecce

Palermo face Lecce on August 17, 2026 in the Italy. Serie B.

Recent form (W-D-L): Palermo 2-2-1, Lecce 3-1-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Palermo — 39%

1 · Palermo39.1%
X · draw28.1%
2 · Lecce32.8%

Model estimate: win Palermo 39.1%, draw 28.1%, win Lecce 32.8%. Model favourite — Palermo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Palermo - Lecce August 17, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Palermo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.40 / X 3.30 / 2 2.85

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6% 2 books
1 38.8%
X 28.5%
2 32.8%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.50 ↓ 2.40
1X2 X 3.25 ↑ 3.30
1X2 P2 2.80 ↑ 2.85

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Coppa Italia
Best price across 11 books
1 2.55 Dafabet
X 3.45 10Bet
2 2.88 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Palermo
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.59 Conceded 1.39 xG 0.95 xGA 1.57 Corners 4.9
Lecce
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.23 Conceded 1.42 xG 1.46 xGA 1.25 Corners 5.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Palermo
39%
2.44
Draw
28%
3.30
Lecce
33%
2.88
Handicap
Palermo (0)
54%
1.73
Lecce (0)
46%
2.05
Total
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Under 2.5
53%
1.77
Both teams to score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
2.00

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

12.44
X3.20
22.86

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Stadium Stadio Renzo Barbera
Start 17.08.2026 19:15 UTC
Market 1 38.9% @ 2.40 / X 28.3% @ 3.30 / 2 32.8% @ 2.85
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Palermo 39%
💹 Market Palermo 39%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Palermo - Lecce

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Palermo 38.8% 39.1% market and model agree
Draw 28.5% 28.1% draw risk
Lecce 32.8% 32.8%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 39.1% / 28.1% / 32.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Palermo / Lecce
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.85 Fonbet · no value · model 32.8%
X 3.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.40 Fonbet · no value · model 39.1%
Double chance
12 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 71.9%
1X 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 67.2%
X2 1.55 Fonbet · no value · model 60.9%
Handicap
2 -1 1.22 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.60 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.05 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 3.70 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.97 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.30 76.9%
1x 1.40 71.4%
x2 1.55 64.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.97 33.7%
X 2.18 45.9%
3.50 28.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.82 55.0%
Under 1 1.88 53.2%
Match center

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.65 (Liga Stavok) · X 3.4 (Betcity) · 2 2.9 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.45 3.25 2.8
Winline 2.6 3.25 2.55
Fonbet 2.45 3.25 2.8
Betcity 2.37 3.4 2.9
Liga Stavok 2.65 3.25 2.6
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Palermo
L W D D W
2026-08-11 Club Friendly Games 2026
Palermo Palermo 0:2 Juventus
2026-08-07 Club Friendly Games 2026
Palermo Melbourne City 0:2 Palermo
2026-07-29 Club Friendly Games 2026
Palermo Palermo 1:1 Iraklis Thessaloniki
2026-07-25 Club Friendly Games 2026
Palermo Palermo 2:2 Nurnberg
2026-07-22 Club Friendly Games 2026
Palermo Palermo 7:0 FC Paradiso
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Lecce
W W D L W
2026-08-09 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lecce 1:0 Monopoli Lecce
2026-07-29 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lecce 5:2 Bistrica Lecce
2026-07-25 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lecce 2:2 Istra 1961 Lecce
2026-07-22 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lecce 0:1 ASU Politehnica Timisoara Lecce
2026-07-19 Club Friendly Games 2026
Haladas VSE 0:1 Lecce Lecce
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPalermo - Lecce

Palermo
0 matches total
Lecce
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

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Frequently asked questions

When does Palermo vs Lecce start?

August 17, 2026.