AI verdict

AI pickOkayama win probability ~86% confidence High

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Okayama. Full breakdown below.

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Emperor Cup
Emperor Cup
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
26.08.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

Emperor Cup

Okayama vs Belugarosso Iwami — Football prediction

Football
Stadium City Light Stadium
O
Okayama
3 : 0
Finished
B
Belugarosso Iwami

Okayama meet Belugarosso Iwami on August 26, 2026 in the Emperor Cup.

Recent form (W-D-L): Okayama 1-3, Belugarosso Iwami 1-0. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 86% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Okayama86%

1 · Okayama✓ Pick86.3%
market 91%
X · draw9.2%
market 6%
2 · Belugarosso Iwami4.4%
market 3%

Model estimate: win Okayama 86.3%, draw 9.2%, win Belugarosso Iwami 4.4%. Model favourite — Okayama.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Okayama - Belugarosso Iwami August 26, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

  • Glicko: Okayama 86.3% / X 9.2% / Belugarosso Iwami 4.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 ✓ Pick 90.7%
X 6.0%
2 3.3%

Odds source: Betcity line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Okayama
90%
1.03
Draw
8%
15.50
Belugarosso Iwami
3%
37.00
Total
Over 4.5
44%
2.30
Under 4.5
56%
1.69

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Okayama 1 : 1 Belugarosso Iwami
11.04
X11.50
241.00

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket Emperor Cup 2026

Round 2
Tokyo6
Nagano Parceiro0
Shonan1
Reinmeer Aomori0
Kashiwa2
Senshu University1
Kyoto Sanga1
Okazaki0
Shimizu2
FC Osaka1
V-Varen3
Ehime2
Machida Z3
Grulla Morioka0
Imabari4
Blaublitz A1
Mito H0
Kyoto Sangyo University2
Tosu4
Kataller T0
Urawa3
Yamanashi Gakuin0
Cerezo3
Gifu1
Montedio3
Fujieda5
Omiya ArdijaA2
Vanraure Hachinohe0
Albirex0
Kagoshima Utd4
Avispa5
Verspah Oita4
Sapporo1
Ventforet3
Yokohama3
Criacao Shinjuku1
Kashima3
Atletico Suzuka Club0
Iwaki FC2
Oita0
Marinos1
Fukushima U0
Jubilo I0
Tegevajaro1
Hiroshima4
Okinawa SV1
Fagiano O3
Belugarosso Iwami0
United Chiba9
AC Numazu8
Kobe2
Veroskronos Tsuno1
Tokyo V4
Thespa Gunma1
Vegalta1
Tochigi City2
Frontale3
Tochigi1
Gamba2
Reilac Shiga0
Vortis3
FC Tokushima0
Nagoya1
Gainare T3

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Stadium City Light Stadium
Start 26.08.2026 10:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Okayama86%
💹 Market Okayama91%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Okayama - Belugarosso Iwami

Form 5/1 recent games
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.3% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.029 / LogLoss 0.147
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.3% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.029 / LogLoss 0.147
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.3% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.029 / LogLoss 0.147
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 86.3% fact: home hit / ROI 3.0% / Brier 0.029 / LogLoss 0.147
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Okayama 89.1% 86.3% market and model agree
Draw 8.3% 9.2% draw risk
Belugarosso Iwami 2.6% 4.4%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 86.3% / 9.2% / 4.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,700 / 1,714 Okayama / Belugarosso Iwami
RD 300 / 260 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,101-2,300 / 1,195-2,234 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
1 1.02 market consensus · no value · model 86.3%
Double chance
X2 8.80 market consensus · no value · model 13.7%
Both teams to score
No 1.45 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.56 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.45 69.0%
yes 2.56 39.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
x2 7.70 13.0% 9.90 10.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.32 75.8%
X 3.29 30.4%
20.20 5.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.82 55.0%
Under 1.5 1.89 52.9%
Match center
Okayama
D W L L L
22.08, 04:30
Fadzhiano Okayama 0:0 Tokio Verdi
15.08, 04:55
Fadzhiano Okayama 1:0 V-Varen Nagasaki
08.08, 05:00
Sereso Osaka 2:1 Fadzhiano Okayama
25.07, 09:00
Shalke 3:1 Fadzhiano Okayama
22.07, 10:30
Verder 2:0 Fadzhiano Okayama
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.4 Conceded
4 Points
Belugarosso Iwami
W
19.08 09:00 UTC Japan: Cup Yaponii
Belugarosso Iwami 2:0 Nagasaki Intl University
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points

Recent form

Okayama WDWLLL
Belugarosso Iwami LWLLL

Team form & streaks

Okayama WDWLLL
Unbeaten: 5
Belugarosso Iwami LW

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Match facts

Round: 8 Stadium: City Light Stadium

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Okayama vs Belugarosso Iwami?

By the PropickAI model, Okayama is favoured — about 86% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Okayama vs Belugarosso Iwami?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Okayama. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Okayama vs Belugarosso Iwami?

Live odds for Okayama vs Belugarosso Iwami from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Okayama vs Belugarosso Iwami start?

August 26, 2026.