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AI verdict

AI pick Baez S win probability ~79% confidence High best odds 1.18

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Baez S. Full breakdown below.

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ATP. Uinston-Seylem
ATP. Uinston-Seylem International
25.08.2026 21:00 UTC

Grenier H - Baez S

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis ATP. Uinston-Seylem
ATP. Uinston-Seylem hard 25.08.2026 21:00 UTC Not started
25.08.2026 21:00 UTC Not started
Grenier H
Grenier H
Rank #255 Elo 218
35Bad Form
W L W L L L W L
Baez S
Baez S
Rank #50 Elo 1044
58Average Form
L L L W L L L L
-:-
Stadium: Veyk Forest Tennis Senter, Chetvertyy kort Coverage: hard
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Grenier H Baez S
Win % 49.8% 52.7%
Hard % 54.6% 38.3%
Clay % 34.6% 62.7%
Grass % 37.5% 25%
Deciding set % 49.5% 54.1%
Tie-breaks % 49.2% 46.3%
Titles (total) 4 8
Last 10 LWLLWLLWLL LWWWLWLWLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#255 Rating #50
30 Age 25
1.96m Height (cm) 1.70m
85kg Weight (kg) 70kg
Right Hand Right
- Seed -
hard Coverage hard
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Grenier H Baez S
Aces per match 6.19 1.54
Double faults per match 3.05 1.78
Breaks per match 3.45 2.34

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Hugo Grenier
Rank:255 Elo: 218
W L W L L L W L
Sebastian Baez
Rank:50 Elo: 1044
L L L W L L L L
Elo favourite:Baez S (edge +826 Elo)

Hard

Hugo GrenierSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 47.4% 9 / 19 Matches 64.7% 11 / 17 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 58.1% 25 / 43 Matches 50.0% 12 / 24 Matches

Clay

Hugo GrenierSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 4 Matches 58.6% 17 / 29 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 4 Matches 56.7% 17 / 30 Matches

Grass

Hugo GrenierSebastian Baez
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 34.6% 9 / 26 Matches 58.0% 29 / 50 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 50.0% 25 / 50 Matches 51.7% 30 / 58 Matches
Current rank 255 50

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez
Prize money (career) $1,250,383 USD $4,315,437 USD
Rating 255 50
Age 30 25
Height 1.96m 1.70m
Weight 85kg 70kg
Playing hand Right-handed Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez
Match Wins 35 % 58 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 38 % 61 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 0 % 33 %
Wins in Straight Sets 12 % 44 %
Wins From Behind 15 % 13 %
Won At Least 1 Set 42 % 72 %
Set 1 Win 27 % 62 %
Set 2 Win 27 % 54 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.96 9.88 9.92
Over 6.5 96 % 100 % 98 %
Over 7.5 92 % 89 % 91 %
Over 8.5 75 % 80 % 78 %
Over 9.5 50 % 63 % 57 %
Over 10.5 33 % 28 % 31 %
Over 11.5 33 % 28 % 31 %

Aces

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez Match total
Aces Per Match 6.19 1.54 7.73
Most Aces in a match 57 % 15 % N/A
1+ 90 % 80 % 97 %
2+ 81 % 43 % 94 %
3+ 76 % 17 % 90 %
4+ 62 % 7 % 79 %
5+ 62 % 7 % 65 %

Breaks

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.45 2.34 5.79
Over 0.5 90 % 98 % 100 %
Over 1.5 62 % 96 % 98 %
Over 2.5 57 % 15 % 83 %
Over 3.5 52 % 11 % 78 %
Over 4.5 10 % 4 % 75 %
Over 5.5 10 % 2 % 70 %

Tie-breaks

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.38 0.2 0.29
Over 0.5 38 % 20 % 29 %
Over 1.5 0 % 0 % 0 %
Under 0.5 63 % 80 % 29 %
Under 1.5 100 % 100 % 0 %

Double faults

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez Match total
Double Faults Per Match 3.05 1.78 4.83
Over 0.5 (1+) 90 % 91 % 99 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 67 % 46 % 87 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 57 % 28 % 78 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 33 % 11 % 65 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 24 % 2 % 53 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 19 % 0 % 45 %

Net points

Hugo Grenier Sebastian Baez Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 9.28 5.67 14.95
Over 4.5 (5+) 69 % 52 % 61 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 63 % 41 % 52 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 63 % 28 % 46 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 63 % 14 % 39 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 63 % 14 % 39 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 50 % 10 % 30 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 5.25 18.2% BetBoom
P2 1.17 81.8% BetBoom

Grenier H take on Baez S on August 25, 2026 in the ATP. Uinston-Seylem, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Grenier H 2-0-3, Baez S 3-0-2. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Baez S — 79%

1 · Grenier H20.7%
market 19%
2 · Baez S ✓ Pick79.3%
market 81%

Model estimate: win Grenier H 20.7%, win Baez S 79.3%. Model favourite — Baez S.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Match winner — Baez S

Model confidence 80% ~87% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Grenier H - Baez S August 25, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Baez S. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 4.80 / 2 1.18

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 4 books · best price +1.3%
1 18.8%
2 ✓ Pick 81.2%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 5.00 ↑ 5.10
Winner P2 1.17 → 1.17

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Grenier H
19%
5.30
Baez S
81%
1.18
Total
Over 5.5
49%
1.88
Under 5.5
51%
1.81

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Stadium Veyk Forest Tennis Senter, Chetvertyy kort
Start 25.08.2026 21:00 UTC
Market 1 19.7% @ 4.80 / 2 80.3% @ 1.18
Coverage hard
Form 10 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Baez S 79%
💹 Market Baez S 81%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Grenier H - Baez S

Onlayn translyatsiya tennisnogo matcha Ugo Grene - Sebastyan Baes. Uinston-Seylem. Vsya informatsiya: statistika, novosti, intervyu, foto

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Grenier H 18.4% 27.8%
Baez S 81.6% 72.2% model more cautious than market

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko20.7% · +Elo prior (weight0.34).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 20.7% / 79.3% probabilities
Rating 1,348 / 1,712 Grenier H / Baez S
RD 202 / 121 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 943-1,752 / 1,471-1,953 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 79.3%
1 4.80 Fonbet · no value · model 20.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.15 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.17 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 4.70 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 4.40 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 0.5 3.10 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 3.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
4.40 22.7%
3.95 25.3%
3.45 29.0%
2.80 35.7%
2.15 46.5%
1.70 58.8%
1.35 74.1%
1.16 86.2%
4.70 21.3%
1.17 85.5%
1.20 83.3%
1.25 80.0%
1.38 72.5%
1.63 61.4%
2.10 47.6%
2.90 34.5%
4.60 21.7%
1.15 87.0%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
2.30 43.5%
7.60 13.2%
1.05 95.2%
1.57 63.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 17.5 1.30 76.9%
Over 18.5 1.48 67.6%
Over 19.5 1.70 58.8%
Over 20.5 1.98 50.5%
Over 21.5 2.20 45.5%
Over 22.5 2.50 40.0%
Over 23.5 2.80 35.7%
Over 24.5 2.95 33.9%
Over 25.5 3.20 31.3%
Under 17.5 3.25 30.8%
Under 18.5 2.45 40.8%
Under 19.5 2.02 49.5%
Under 20.5 1.83 54.6%
Under 21.5 1.60 62.5%
Under 22.5 1.47 68.0%
Under 23.5 1.40 71.4%
Under 24.5 1.35 74.1%
Under 25.5 1.30 76.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.95 33.9%
Under 2.5 1.38 72.5%
Match center

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 5.9 (Betcity) · 2 1.17 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 5.1 1.17
Winline 4.75 1.15
Fonbet 5 1.17
Betcity 5.9 1.13
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Grenier H
W L W L L
2026-08-24 2026 Winston Salem, USA
Grenier H Safiullin R 1:2 Grenier H
2026-08-23 2026 Winston Salem, USA, Qualifying
Grenier H Grenier H 0:2 Rottgering M
2026-08-22 2026 Winston Salem, USA, Qualifying
Grenier H Grenier H 2:0 Oberleitner N
2026-08-17 2026 Cancun, Mexico, Qualifying
Grenier H Blanch Dali 2:1 Grenier H
2026-07-16 2026 Pozoblanco, Spain
Grenier H Grenier H 0:1 Santillan A
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.2 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Baez S
L W W W L
2026-08-24 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 1:2 Hurkacz H Baez S
2026-08-23 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 2:0 Harris L Baez S
2026-08-22 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 2:0 Wong C Baez S
2026-08-21 2026 Cancun, Mexico
Baez S 2:0 Pacheco Mendez R Baez S
2026-08-16 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Tien L 2:0 Baez S Baez S
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

When does Grenier H vs Baez S start?

August 25, 2026.