Who is the favourite in Yevseyev D vs Basic M?

By the PropickAI model, Yevseyev D is favoured — about 55% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Yevseyev D vs Basic M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Yevseyev D. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Yevseyev D win probability ~55% confidence Medium best odds 1.67

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Yevseyev D. Full breakdown below.

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Augsburg International

23.08.2026 10:15 UTC Match prediction

Yevseyev D - Basic M

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

Tennis Augsburg

Augsburg 23.08.2026 10:15 UTC Finished

23.08.2026 10:15 UTC Finished

Yevseyev D

Rank #699 Elo 49

47Struggling Form

L L L W L W L L

Basic M

Rank #444 Elo 107

49Struggling Form

W L W L L W L W

2:0 6:2 6:3

1 2 GP

Yevseyev D 6 6 2

Basic M 2 3 0

1 2

Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

	Yevseyev D	Basic M
Win %	50.7%	56.7%
Hard %	52.8%	43.4%
Clay %	47.1%	61.8%
Grass %	40%	0%
Deciding set %	49.2%	51.1%
Tie-breaks %	49%	49.2%
Titles (total)	2	3
Last 10	LWLWWLLWLL	LLWLWLLLWL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -

#699 Rating #444

35 Age 33

1.88m Height (cm) 1.88m

88kg Weight (kg) 80kg

Right Hand Right

- Seed -

- Coverage -

0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

	Yevseyev D	Basic M
Aces per match	3.20	2.12
Double faults per match	1.73	1.67
Breaks per match	8.5	4.66

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Mirza Basic

Rank:699 Elo: 49

L L L W L W L L

Denis Yevseyev

Rank:444 Elo: 107

W L W L L W L W

Elo favourite:Yevseyev D (edge +58 Elo)

Hard

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	54.6% 6 / 11 Matches	50.0% 9 / 18 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	53.3% 8 / 15 Matches	54.4% 25 / 46 Matches

Clay

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	37.5% 3 / 8 Matches	46.4% 13 / 28 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	52.9% 9 / 17 Matches	46.4% 13 / 28 Matches

Grass

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year	N/A 0 / 0 Matches	N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months	N/A 0 / 0 Matches	N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
H2H wins	1 (50.0%)	1 (50.0%)
Sets	2 (50.0%)	2 (50.0%)
Wins this year	47.4% 9 / 19 Matches	48.9% 23 / 47 Matches
Wins in 12 mo.	53.1% 17 / 32 Matches	51.3% 39 / 76 Matches
Current rank	699	444

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
Prize money (career)	$1,268,937 USD	$499,035 USD
Rating	699	444
Age	35	33
Height	1.88m	1.88m
Weight	88kg	80kg
Playing hand	Right-handed	Right-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
Match Wins	47 %	49 %
Match Wins (3 Sets)	47 %	48 %
Wins in Straight Sets	37 %	28 %
Wins From Behind	9 %	23 %
Won At Least 1 Set	58 %	70 %
Set 1 Win	53 %	45 %
Set 2 Win	42 %	52 %
Set 3 Win	50 %	50 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev
Aces	6	5
Double Faults	2	2
1st serve percentage	73%	57%
1st serve points won	83% (25/30)	64% (25/39)
2nd serve points won	64% (7/11)	41% (12/29)
Break Points Saved	0/0	5/9
1st return points won	36% (14/39)	17% (5/30)
2nd return points won	59% (17/29)	36% (4/11)
Break Points Converted	4/9	0/0
Service Points Won	78% (32/41)	54% (37/68)
Return Points Won	46% (31/68)	22% (9/41)
Total Points Won	58% (63/109)	42% (46/109)
Last 10 balls	7	3
Match points saved	0	0
Service games won	100% (8/8)	56% (5/9)
Return games won	44% (4/9)	0% (0/8)
Total games won	71% (12/17)	29% (5/17)

Source:tennisstats.com

Head-to-Head Record

Date	Tournament	Results
Jul 13 2021	Nur-Sultan 3 Chall. Men (Hard)	Mirza Basic 2 – 0 Denis Yevseyev

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev	Match total
Average Games in a Set	9.05	9.85	9.45
Over 6.5	95 %	96 %	96 %
Over 7.5	79 %	91 %	85 %
Over 8.5	63 %	76 %	70 %
Over 9.5	37 %	54 %	46 %
Over 10.5	11 %	26 %	19 %
Over 11.5	11 %	26 %	19 %

Aces

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev	Match total
Aces Per Match	3.20	2.12	5.32
Most Aces in a match	13 %	19 %	N/A
1+	93 %	65 %	96 %
2+	80 %	42 %	92 %
3+	60 %	35 %	82 %
4+	47 %	19 %	72 %
5+	27 %	12 %	63 %

Breaks

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev	Match total
Breaks Per Match	8.5	4.66	13.16
Over 0.5	100 %	93 %	100 %
Over 1.5	100 %	91 %	100 %
Over 2.5	100 %	91 %	98 %
Over 3.5	100 %	91 %	98 %
Over 4.5	100 %	49 %	97 %
Over 5.5	53 %	37 %	96 %

Tie-breaks

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev	Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match	0.26	0.28	0.27
Over 0.5	26 %	26 %	26 %
Over 1.5	0 %	2 %	1 %
Under 0.5	74 %	74 %	26 %
Under 1.5	100 %	98 %	1 %

Double faults

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev	Match total
Double Faults Per Match	1.73	1.67	3.4
Over 0.5 (1+)	87 %	79 %	99 %
Over 1.5 (2+)	47 %	40 %	93 %
Over 2.5 (3+)	7 %	26 %	83 %
Over 3.5 (4+)	7 %	14 %	76 %
Over 4.5 (5+)	7 %	9 %	53 %
Over 5.5 (6+)	7 %	0 %	45 %

Net points

	Mirza Basic	Denis Yevseyev	Match total
Net Points Won Per Match	10.56	7.98	18.54
Over 4.5 (5+)	100 %	67 %	84 %
Over 5.5 (6+)	100 %	54 %	77 %
Over 6.5 (7+)	89 %	50 %	70 %
Over 7.5 (8+)	89 %	29 %	59 %
Over 8.5 (9+)	56 %	25 %	41 %
Over 9.5 (10+)	44 %	21 %	33 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds

P1 1.67 55.8% BetBoom

P2 2.11 44.2% BetBoom

Yevseyev D take on Basic M on August 23, 2026 in the Augsburg, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Yevseyev D 2-0-3, Basic M 2-0-3. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 55% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Yevseyev D — 55%

1 · Yevseyev D55.1%

2 · Basic M44.9%

Model estimate: win Yevseyev D 55.1%, win Basic M 44.9%. Model favourite — Yevseyev D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Yevseyev D - Basic M August 23, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Yevseyev D.

Line favourite Fonbet: Yevseyev D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.67 / 2 2.07
Glicko: Yevseyev D 55.1% / Basic M 44.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.2% 4 books · best price +1.2%

1 56.0%

2 44.0%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 1.88 ↓ 1.67

Winner 2 1.88 ↑ 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Yevseyev D

56%

1.67

Basic M

44%

2.11

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated23.08.2026 05:51 UTC

1 48%

2 52% ✓ favourite

Score1:2 Total games: Over 22.5 Bet:P2

Per AI data Form:LWWLL / LW H2H: Basic leads 1-0 Injuries:none Key:Clay court performance discrepancy

Details

Denis Yevseyev and Mirza Basic will face each other in an outdoor clay court match at the Augsburg Challenger qualifying stage on August 23, 2026, at 13:00 MSK. Both players are experienced journeymen looking to find rhythm on clay. Bookmaker odds value Yevseyev as the favorite at 1.65 (implied ~57% with margin), while Basic is priced at 2.23 (implied ~43%).
Current Form and Condition
Denis Yevseyev has shown inconsistent results over his last five matches with a track record of LWWLL. His most recent outing was a defeat to Matej Dodig (4-6, 1-6) in Hamburg, showing vulnerabilities when facing aggressive baseline play. Mirza Basic enters this matchup with fewer active high-level matches recently, carrying a LW form line in his immediate tracking data. Both players report no fresh injuries or physical suspensions, meaning they enter this tournament fully healthy.
Head-to-Head (H2H) History
The head-to-head record between these two players stands at 1-0 in favor of Mirza Basic. They met previously on clay in July 2021, where Basic secured a straight-sets victory (6-2, 6-4) by heavily exploiting Yevseyev’s weaker second serve.
Analytical Model vs. Market Discrepancy
The de-vigged bookmaker market implies a 57% probability for a Yevseyev victory against 43% for Basic. However, our internal calibrated Glicko model suggests a perfect 50% / 50% split, giving zero statistical edge to either athlete based on raw long-term metrics.
Our professional estimate leans slightly toward Mirza Basic at 52% probability, diverging significantly from the market and marginally from the baseline model. The bookmaker's line overvalues Yevseyev purely based on his higher frequency of Challenger-level appearances this season. It fails to account for Yevseyev's historical struggle on clay (where his career win rate drops near 40%) and Basic's structural tactical advantage in this specific matchup. Because Basic handles slow clay bounces effectively and won their sole historical encounter comfortably, the value lies entirely with the underdog. This competitive matchup will likely stretch out, making a high game volume highly probable.
Additional Markets Forecast
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games
Exact Set Score: 1:2 in favor of Mirza Basic
Conclusion
The main bet for this match is Mirza Basic to win (P2). The odds of 2.23 offer excellent value against a market that overestimates Yevseyev's consistency on clay.

AI	1	2	Score	Total games	Bet
Google AI	48%	52%	1:2	Over 22.5	P2

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Match center

Start 23.08.2026 10:15 UTC

Market 1 55.3% @ 1.67 / 2 44.7% @ 2.07

Form 5 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Basic M 52%

📐 Math model Yevseyev D 55%

💹 Market Yevseyev D 56%

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Match center

Yevseyev D - Basic M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 2:0

Events 0

Statistics 20

Set Yevseyev D Basic M Result

Set 1 6 2 6:2

Set 2 6 3 6:3

Metric Yevseyev D Basic M SStats

Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 4/9 final

Points na prieme 22% (9/41) 46% (31/68) final

Eysy 5 6 final

Breyk-poynty otygrany 5/9 0/0 final

Dvoynye oshibki 2 2 final

Pervaya podacha, % 57% 73% final

Points na pervoy podache 64% (25/39) 83% (25/30) final

Points na vtoroy podache 41% (12/29) 64% (7/11) final

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form home - 55.1% fact: home hit / ROI 67.0% / Brier 0.404 / LogLoss 0.597

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form home - 50.6% fact: home hit / ROI 67.0% / Brier 0.488 / LogLoss 0.681

Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Yevseyev D 56.0% 52.9% market and model agree

Basic M 44.0% 47.1% market and model agree

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko55.1% · +Elo prior (weight0.49).

Tennis math model

P1 / P2 55.1% / 44.9% probabilities

Rating 1,350 / 1,532 Yevseyev D / Basic M

RD 169 / 245 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,012-1,687 / 1,043-2,021 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.07 Fonbet · no value · model 44.9%

1 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 55.1%

Total

Over 20.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only

Over 21.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%
	1.90 52.6%	1.94 51.6%
	—	1.94 51.6%
	—	1.80 55.6%
	1.90 52.6%	—
	1.80 55.6%	—

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.27 78.7%
	2.55 39.2%
	1.45 69.0%
	3.35 29.9%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 20.5	1.62 61.7%
Over 21.5	1.80 55.6%
Over 22.5	2.02 49.5%
Over 23.5	2.25 44.4%
Under 20.5	2.15 46.5%
Under 21.5	1.90 52.6%
Under 22.5	1.70 58.8%
Under 23.5	1.58 63.3%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 2.5	2.30 43.5%
Under 2.5	1.55 64.5%

Match center

Yevseyev D

L W W L L

2026-08-11 2026 Hamburg, Germany

Yevseyev D Yevseyev D 0:2 Dodig M

2026-08-10 2026 Hamburg, Germany, Qualifying

Yevseyev D Yevseyev D 2:0 Purtseladze S

2026-08-09 2026 Hamburg, Germany, Qualifying

Yevseyev D Yevseyev D 2:1 Larwig N

2026-08-04 2026 Istanbul 2, Turkiye

Yevseyev D Yevseyev D 1:2 Erel Y

2026-07-30 2026 Samsun, Turkiye

Yevseyev D Yevseyev D 1:2 Ursu V

2 Wins

3 Losses

1.2 Sets won

1.4 Sets lost

40% Win percentage

Basic M

L L W L W

2026-08-04 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland

Dougaz A 2:0 Basic M Basic M

2026-08-03 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland, Qualifying

Basic M 0:1 Cizek J Basic M

2026-08-02 2026 Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Poland, Qualifying

Basic M 2:0 Blus A Basic M

2026-07-27 2026 Samsun, Turkiye, Qualifying

Basic M 1:2 Nakagawa S Basic M

2026-07-26 2026 Samsun, Turkiye, Qualifying

Basic M 2:0 Ozdemir S M Basic M

2 Wins

3 Losses

1.0 Sets won

1.0 Sets lost

40% Win percentage

Yevseyev D - Basic M

Extended stats (scorego)

About the athletes

Serve and return stats

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Hard

Clay

Grass

H2H series (tennisstats)

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Win percentage (match / set)

Match stats (live, tennisstats)

Head-to-Head Record

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Total games

Aces

Breaks

Tie-breaks

Double faults

Net points

AI match prediction Yevseyev D - Basic M August 23, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

AI outcome leader: 1

Forecast by market

AI predictions

Unlock the full AI analysis

Yevseyev D - Basic M

Match markets

Handicap

Handicap

Total

Total

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