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AI verdict

AI pick La Serna J M win probability ~61% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to La Serna J M. Full breakdown below.

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Plovdiv 3
Plovdiv 3 International
01.09.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction

Vasilev A vs La Serna J M — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis Plovdiv 3
Plovdiv 3 01.09.2026 12:00 UTC Finished
01.09.2026 12:00 UTC Finished
Vasilev A
Vasilev A
Rank #289 Elo 197
63Average Form
L W L W W L W L
La Serna J M
La Serna J M
Rank #623 Elo 59
57Average Form
W W L W L W W L
0:2 1:6 2:6
1 2 GP
Vasilev A 1 2 0
La Serna J M 6 6 2
1 2
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 La Serna J M — 61%

1 · Vasilev A38.5%
market 38%
2 · La Serna J M ✓ Pick61.5%
market 62%

Model estimate: win Vasilev A 38.5%, win La Serna J M 61.5%. Model favourite — La Serna J M.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — La Serna J M

Model confidence 93% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vasilev A - La Serna J M September 1, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like La Serna J M.

Line favourite Fonbet: La Serna J M. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 13.00 / 2 1.01
  • Glicko: Vasilev A 38.5% / La Serna J M 61.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.4% 6 books
1 37.7%
2 ✓ Pick 62.3%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 2.25 ↑ 2.45
Winner 2 1.57 ↓ 1.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Vasilev A
37%
13.00
La Serna J M
63%
1.51
Total
Over 21.5
49%
1.95
Under 21.5
51%
1.85

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Vasilev A La Serna J M
Win % 54.5% 0%
Hard % 42.9% 0%
Clay % 56.2% 0%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 54.5% 0%
Tie-breaks % 55.6% 0%
Titles (total) 1 0
Last 10 LWWLLWLWLW L

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#289 Rating #623
22 Age 19
1.88m Height (cm) 1.85m
83kg Weight (kg) 76kg
- Hand -
- Seed -
- Coverage -
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Vasilev A La Serna J M
Aces per match 1.66 3.31
Double faults per match 2.57 6.38
Breaks per match 3.19 9.5

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Juan Manuel La Serna
Rank:289 Elo: 197
L W L W W L W L
Alexander Vasilev
Rank:623 Elo: 59
W W L W L W W L
Elo favourite:La Serna J M (edge +138 Elo)

Hard

Juan Manuel La SernaAlexander Vasilev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 33.3% 1 / 3 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 4 / 6 Matches 63.6% 7 / 11 Matches

Clay

Juan Manuel La SernaAlexander Vasilev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 62.8% 32 / 51 Matches 59.3% 16 / 27 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 63.8% 44 / 69 Matches 58.6% 17 / 29 Matches

Grass

Juan Manuel La SernaAlexander Vasilev
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches N/A 0 / 0 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 62.8% 32 / 51 Matches 56.7% 17 / 30 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 64.0% 48 / 75 Matches 60.0% 24 / 40 Matches
Current rank 289 623

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev
Prize money (career) $27,352 USD $2,019 USD
Rating 289 623
Age 22 19
Height 1.88m 1.85m
Weight 83kg 76kg

Win percentage (match / set)

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev
Match Wins 63 % 57 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 63 % 57 %
Wins in Straight Sets 39 % 40 %
Wins From Behind 14 % 20 %
Won At Least 1 Set 76 % 67 %
Set 1 Win 67 % 53 %
Set 2 Win 49 % 53 %
Set 3 Win 67 % 71 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.12 9.03 9.08
Over 6.5 98 % 93 % 96 %
Over 7.5 80 % 70 % 75 %
Over 8.5 63 % 63 % 63 %
Over 9.5 33 % 37 % 35 %
Over 10.5 14 % 17 % 16 %
Over 11.5 14 % 17 % 16 %

Aces

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev Match total
Aces Per Match 1.66 3.31 4.97
Most Aces in a match 40 % 62 % N/A
1+ 64 % 100 % 95 %
2+ 45 % 77 % 76 %
3+ 28 % 69 % 65 %
4+ 15 % 31 % 54 %
5+ 9 % 23 % 47 %

Breaks

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.19 9.5 12.69
Over 0.5 96 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 45 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 45 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 43 % 100 % 99 %
Over 4.5 15 % 100 % 98 %
Over 5.5 11 % 100 % 96 %

Tie-breaks

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.2 0.13 0.16
Over 0.5 20 % 13 % 16 %
Over 1.5 0 % 0 % 0 %
Under 0.5 80 % 87 % 16 %
Under 1.5 100 % 100 % 0 %

Double faults

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.57 6.38 8.95
Over 0.5 (1+) 83 % 100 % 99 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 64 % 92 % 94 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 43 % 92 % 91 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 36 % 85 % 85 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 19 % 62 % 78 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 6 % 62 % 73 %

Net points

Juan Manuel La Serna Alexander Vasilev Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 8.3 4.5 12.8
Over 4.5 (5+) 85 % 50 % 68 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 85 % 50 % 68 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 59 % 50 % 55 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 52 % 50 % 51 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 44 % 0 % 22 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 41 % 0 % 21 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 2.70 35.9% BetBoom
P2 1.51 64.1% BetBoom

Vasilev A host La Serna J M in tennis, in Plovdiv 3, on 1 September 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates La Serna J M as the favourite at around 61%. The bookmaker consensus (6 books) implies about 62% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Vasilev A have 2 won and 0 lost of their last 2; La Serna J M have 1 won and 2 lost of 3. Vasilev A arrive on a winning run. Glicko ratings: Vasilev A 1845, La Serna J M 1602, a gap of 244 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 244 Glicko rating points, the model's 61% for La Serna J M. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Match center
Start 01.09.2026 12:00 UTC
Market 1 7.2% @ 13.00 / 2 92.8% @ 1.01
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model La Serna J M 61%
💹 Market La Serna J M 62%
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Match center

Vasilev A - La Serna J M

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 0:2
Events 0
Statistics 20
Set Vasilev A La Serna J M Result
Set 1 1 6 1:6
Set 2 2 6 2:6
Metric Vasilev A La Serna J M SStats
Breyk-poynty realizovany 0/0 0/0 final
Points na prieme 0% (0/0) 0% (0/1) final
Eysy 0 0 final
Breyk-poynty otygrany 0/0 0/0 final
Dvoynye oshibki 0 0 final
Pervaya podacha, % 100% 0% final
Points na pervoy podache 100% (1/1) 0% (0/0) final
Points na vtoroy podache 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0) final
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 61.5% fact: away hit / ROI 51.0% / Brier 0.296 / LogLoss 0.486
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form away - 51.4% fact: away hit / ROI 51.0% / Brier 0.473 / LogLoss 0.666
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Vasilev A 37.8% 44.0% market and model agree
La Serna J M 62.2% 56.0% market and model agree
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko38.5% · +Elo prior (weight0.55).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 38.5% / 61.5% probabilities
Rating 1,845 / 1,602 Vasilev A / La Serna J M
RD 234 / 214 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,378-2,313 / 1,173-2,030 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 61.5%
1 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 38.5%
Total
Over 10.5 3.75 market consensus · line only
Over 14.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.02 49.5%
1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0% 2.10 47.6%
— — 1.82 55.0%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 1.55 64.5%
— — 1.70 58.8%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.88 53.2%
— — 1.70 58.8%
— — 1.42 70.4%
— — 1.01 99.0%
— — 1.05 95.2%
— — 2.40 41.7%
1.91 52.4% 1.88 53.2% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
10.00 10.0%
11.00 9.1%
1.01 99.0%
1.02 98.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 14.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 15.5 — — 7.40 13.5%
Over 16.5 — — 10.50 9.5%
Over 17.5 — — 2.55 39.2%
Over 18.5 — — 2.02 49.5%
Over 19.5 — — 2.10 47.6%
Over 20.5 — 1.83 54.6% 1.72 58.1%
Over 21.5 1.95 51.3% — 1.90 52.6%
Over 22.5 — — 2.05 48.8%
Over 23.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Under 14.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
Under 15.5 — — 1.05 95.2%
Under 16.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Under 17.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
Under 20.5 — 1.87 53.5% —
Under 21.5 1.78 56.2% — —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 10.00 10.0%
Under 2.5 1.02 98.0%
Match center
Vasilev A
L L W L W
2026-08-03 2026 Plovdiv 2, Bulgaria
Vasilev A Demanet E 2:0 Vasilev A
2026-07-20 2026 Segovia, Spain, Qualifying
Vasilev A Vasilev A 1:2 Singh D P
2026-07-19 2026 Segovia, Spain, Qualifying
Vasilev A Castelnuovo L 0:2 Vasilev A
2026-07-02 2026 Troyes, France
Vasilev A Coulibaly E 2:0 Vasilev A
2026-06-30 2026 Troyes, France
Vasilev A Vasilev A 2:1 Wehnelt K
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.0 Sets won
1.4 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
La Serna J M
L W L W W
2026-08-26 2026 Augsburg, Germany
La Serna J M 1:2 Barton H La Serna J M
2026-08-25 2026 Augsburg, Germany
Xassan B 1:2 La Serna J M La Serna J M
2026-08-20 2026 Sion, Switzerland
Compagnucci T 2:1 La Serna J M La Serna J M
2026-08-19 2026 Sion, Switzerland
Staeheli L 0:1 La Serna J M La Serna J M
2026-08-18 2026 Sion, Switzerland
Mena F 0:2 La Serna J M La Serna J M
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

More predictions

Mashtakov N – La Serna J M 03.09 Iannaccone F – Mrva M 03.09 Milev Y – Parisca I 03.09 Ovcharenko O – Kravchenko G 04.09

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasilev A vs La Serna J M?

By the PropickAI model, La Serna J M is favoured — about 61% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Vasilev A vs La Serna J M?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to La Serna J M. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Vasilev A vs La Serna J M?

Live odds for Vasilev A vs La Serna J M from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Vasilev A vs La Serna J M start?

September 1, 2026.