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AI verdict

AI pick Gaston H win probability ~56% confidence Medium best odds 1.05

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Gaston H. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
28.08.2026 17:05 UTC Match prediction

Gaston H vs Smith Colton — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 28.08.2026 17:05 UTC Finished
28.08.2026 17:05 UTC Finished
Gaston H
Gaston H
Rank #88 Elo 697
54Average Form
W W L W W L L L
Smith Colton
Smith Colton
Rank #221 Elo 253
53Average Form
W W L L L W W W
2:1 1:6 6:4 6:2
1 2 3 GP
Gaston H 1 6 6 2
Smith Colton 6 4 2 1
1 2 3
Coverage: grass
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Gaston H Smith Colton
Win % 51.8% 33.3%
Hard % 51.7% 33.3%
Clay % 52.5% 0%
Grass % 47.6% 0%
Deciding set % 56.6% 0%
Tie-breaks % 59.4% 0%
Titles (total) 6 0
Last 10 WWLWWLLLWW LLLWLW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#88 Rating #221
25 Age 23
1.73m Height (cm) 1.83m
68kg Weight (kg) 77kg
- Hand -
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Gaston H Smith Colton
Aces per match 2.43 4.95
Double faults per match 2.2 2.75
Breaks per match 3.03 2.9

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Hugo Gaston
Rank:88 Elo: 697
W W L W W L L L
Colton Smith
Rank:221 Elo: 253
W W L L L W W W
Elo favourite:Gaston H (edge +444 Elo)

Hard

Hugo GastonColton Smith
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 57.1% 12 / 21 Matches 58.6% 17 / 29 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 66.7% 26 / 39 Matches 53.9% 21 / 39 Matches

Clay

Hugo GastonColton Smith
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 50.0% 11 / 22 Matches 33.3% 3 / 9 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 50.0% 11 / 22 Matches 33.3% 3 / 9 Matches

Grass

Hugo GastonColton Smith
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 0.0% 0 / 1 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 53.9% 28 / 52 Matches 53.5% 23 / 43 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 60.6% 43 / 71 Matches 50.9% 27 / 53 Matches
Current rank 88 221

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith
Prize money (career) $2,725,265 USD $23,681 USD
Rating 88 221
Age 25 23
Height 1.73m 1.83m
Weight 68kg 77kg

Win percentage (match / set)

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith
Match Wins 54 % 53 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 52 % 53 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 67 % 67 %
Wins in Straight Sets 37 % 37 %
Wins From Behind 17 % 17 %
Won At Least 1 Set 71 % 72 %
Set 1 Win 54 % 53 %
Set 2 Win 54 % 56 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith Match total
Average Games in a Set 8.98 10.37 9.68
Over 6.5 93 % 98 % 96 %
Over 7.5 77 % 90 % 84 %
Over 8.5 59 % 80 % 70 %
Over 9.5 36 % 65 % 51 %
Over 10.5 16 % 43 % 30 %
Over 11.5 16 % 43 % 30 %

Aces

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith Match total
Aces Per Match 2.43 4.95 7.38
Most Aces in a match 34 % 68 % N/A
1+ 82 % 98 % 99 %
2+ 57 % 93 % 95 %
3+ 41 % 80 % 86 %
4+ 30 % 65 % 78 %
5+ 16 % 48 % 67 %

Breaks

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith Match total
Breaks Per Match 3.03 2.9 5.93
Over 0.5 93 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 61 % 48 % 100 %
Over 2.5 16 % 43 % 100 %
Over 3.5 16 % 3 % 98 %
Over 4.5 11 % 0 % 96 %
Over 5.5 2 % 0 % 49 %

Tie-breaks

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.27 0.43 0.35
Over 0.5 20 % 43 % 31 %
Over 1.5 7 % 0 % 3 %
Under 0.5 80 % 58 % 31 %
Under 1.5 93 % 100 % 3 %

Double faults

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.2 2.75 4.95
Over 0.5 (1+) 82 % 90 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 59 % 73 % 90 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 36 % 53 % 81 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 23 % 20 % 70 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 9 % 13 % 53 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 7 % 10 % 37 %

Net points

Hugo Gaston Colton Smith Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.74 8.86 16.6
Over 4.5 (5+) 48 % 79 % 64 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 41 % 72 % 57 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 38 % 55 % 47 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 31 % 48 % 40 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 24 % 41 % 33 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 17 % 41 % 29 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.69 57.6% BetBoom
P2 2.30 42.4% BetBoom

Gaston H face Smith Colton in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 28 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Gaston H as the favourite at around 56%. The bookmaker consensus (6 books) implies about 56% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Gaston H 3 won and 2 lost; Smith Colton 2 won and 3 lost. Gaston H arrive on a winning run. On the Glicko scale it is 1736 for Gaston H against 1532 for Smith Colton - a gap of 204 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. The favourite's edge is moderate, so a protective market (double chance or draw-no-bet) is steadier than a single outright bet. Key markers: an edge of 204 Glicko rating points, the model's 56% for Gaston H. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Gaston H — 56%

1 · Gaston H ✓ Pick56.1%
2 · Smith Colton43.9%

Model estimate: win Gaston H 56.1%, win Smith Colton 43.9%. Model favourite — Gaston H.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Gaston H

Model confidence 90% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Gaston H - Smith Colton August 28, 2026

Tennis math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Gaston H.

Line favourite Fonbet: Gaston H. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.05 / 2 9.00
  • Glicko: Gaston H 56.1% / Smith Colton 43.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.1% 6 books · best price +1.5%
1 ✓ Pick 56.0%
2 44.0%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.90 ↓ 1.62
Winner 2 1.90 ↑ 2.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Gaston H
56%
1.69
Smith Colton
44%
9.00
Handicap
Gaston H (-1.5)
53%
3.20
Smith Colton (-1.5)
47%
2.13
Total
Over 22.5
51%
1.87
Under 22.5
49%
2.08

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh0
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo0
Smith, Colton0
Fearnley, Jacob0
Rodionov, Jurij0
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco0
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor0
McDonald, Mackenzie0
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete0
Cina, Federico0
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam0
Schoolkate, Tristan0
Gaubas, Vilius0
Wendelken, Harry0
Harris, Lloyd0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei0

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

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Match center
Start 28.08.2026 17:05 UTC
Market 1 89.6% @ 1.05 / 2 10.4% @ 9.00
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Gaston H 56%
💹 Market Gaston H 56%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Gaston H - Smith Colton

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Set Gaston H Smith Colton Result
Set 1 1 6 1:6
Set 2 6 4 6:4
Set 3 6 2 6:2
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 56.1% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.385 / LogLoss 0.578
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit tennis is audit-only for now: surface, serve/return and market are needed Data: line, form, coverage home - 50.7% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.485 / LogLoss 0.679
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Gaston H 56.0% 55.3% market and model agree
Smith Colton 44.0% 44.7% market and model agree
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko56.1% · +Elo prior (weight0.48).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 56.1% / 43.9% probabilities
Rating 1,736 / 1,532 Gaston H / Smith Colton
RD 193 / 215 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,350-2,122 / 1,102-1,962 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.00 Fonbet · no value · model 43.9%
1 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 56.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.40 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 3.95 Fonbet · line only
2 0 2.03 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.70 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 10.5 3.30 market consensus · line only
Over 18.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.82 55.0% — —
— 1.67 59.9% —
1.82 55.0% — —
1.82 55.0% 1.90 52.6% —
— 1.73 57.8% —
1.92 52.1% — 3.95 25.3%
1.92 52.1% 1.85 54.1% 5.90 17.0%
1.97 50.8% — 1.40 71.4%
— 2.13 47.0% 1.30 76.9%
— — 1.19 84.0%
— — 1.55 64.5%
— 2.03 49.3% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.05 95.2%
11.00 9.1%
1.02 98.0%
7.80 12.8%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 18.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 19.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 20.5 — — 1.92 52.1%
Over 21.5 — — 1.75 57.1%
Over 22.5 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.67 59.9%
Over 23.5 1.97 50.8% 1.97 50.8% 1.19 84.0%
Over 24.5 — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 25.5 — — 1.40 71.4%
Over 26.5 — — 3.95 25.3%
Over 27.5 — — 5.40 18.5%
Under 22.5 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% —
Under 23.5 1.78 56.2% 1.78 56.2% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 1.05 95.2%
Under 2.5 7.80 12.8%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0
2026-08-28 · Ugo Gaston 2:1 Kolton Smit
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.9 (Pari) · 2 1.9 (Pari)
Bookmaker12
Pari 1.9 1.9
Winline 1.9 1.9
Fonbet 1.9 1.9
Betcity 1.84 1.9
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

4 Eysy 3
1 Dvoynye oshibki 5
9 Vsego breyk-poyntov 4
4 Vyigrannye breyk-poynty 3
75 Vyigrannye Points 69
40 Points na podache 46
23 Poteryannye Points na podache 35
41 Uspeshnaya 1-ya podacha 52
21 Uspeshnaya 2-ya podacha 24
27 Vyigrysh 1-y podachi 35
13 Vyigrysh 2-y podachi 11
10 Maks. ochkov podryad 5
9 Geymy na podache 9
13 Vyigrannye geymy 12
5 Maks. geymov podryad 5
0 Tay-breyk 0
Source: ruscore
Gaston H
W W L W W
2026-08-26 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Gaston H Gaston H 2:0 Ilagan A
2026-08-25 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Gaston H Gaston H 2:0 Justo G I
2026-08-22 2026 Quebec City, Canada
Gaston H Gaston H 0:2 Van Assche L
2026-08-21 2026 Quebec City, Canada
Gaston H De Jong J 0:2 Gaston H
2026-08-20 2026 Quebec City, Canada
Gaston H Popyrin A 0:2 Gaston H
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.4 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
Smith Colton
W W L L L
2026-08-26 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Kym J 1:2 Smith Colton Smith Colton
2026-08-25 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Smith Colton 2:1 Pellegrino A Smith Colton
2026-08-11 2026 Brownsburg, USA
Smith Colton 1:2 Gill F Smith Colton
2026-08-04 2026 Lexington, USA
Hara Friend J D 2:1 Smith Colton Smith Colton
2026-07-26 2026 Los Cabos, Mexico, Qualifying
Pascual Ferra R 2:1 Smith Colton Smith Colton
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gaston H vs Smith Colton?

By the PropickAI model, Gaston H is favoured — about 56% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Gaston H vs Smith Colton?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Gaston H. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Gaston H vs Smith Colton?

Live odds for Gaston H vs Smith Colton from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Gaston H vs Smith Colton start?

August 28, 2026.