24.08.2026 16:30 UTC
Fair probability (no margin)
AI outcome leader: 1
Head-to-head and formDetails
Vilius Gaubas is the slight favorite to defeat Kilian Feldbausch in this US Open qualifying match, with our analysis supporting a 55% victory probability for Gaubas (P1) compared to 45% for Feldbausch (P2).
Current Form and Hard Court Performance
Vilius Gaubas: Shows a recent form profile of LWWWL. Entering as the 14th seed in the qualifying draw gives him a strong confidence boost. He holds a higher ATP ranking of 123, which reflects a more consistent performance against higher-tier opponents throughout the season.
Kilian Feldbausch: Possesses a recent form layout of LWLWW. Sitting at an ATP ranking of 235, his exposure to high-pressure Grand Slam qualifying matches is slightly more limited.
Head-to-Head and Match Conditions
H2H Record: There are no previous professional meetings between these two players, making this a completely fresh tactical matchup.
Injuries: Both competitors enter this tournament fully healthy with no reported injuries or physical limitations.
Surface Adaptability: While Gaubas generally favors slower clay courts, his higher baseline consistency should help him navigate the fast hard courts of Flushing Meadows against Feldbausch.
Market Breakdown and Total Games
Our probabilities align precisely with the market-calibrated Glicko model (55% to 45%). Gaubas holds the analytical edge due to his superior ranking and seeding advantages. However, Feldbausch possesses a strong serve that can keep sets competitive on fast hard courts. This dynamic points toward a tight, extended battle that likely stretches to a deciding third set.
Exact Score Forecast: 2:1 in favor of Vilius Gaubas.
Total Games Line: Over 22.5 games.
Conclusion
The primary recommendation for this matchup is a bet on Vilius Gaubas to win, capitalizing on his superior tactical experience at the Challenger and Grand Slam qualification levels.
Match markets