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AI verdict

AI pick De Minaur A win probability ~91% confidence High best odds 1.02

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to De Minaur A. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
01.09.2026 21:00 UTC

Guerrieri A vs De Minaur A — Tennis prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 01.09.2026 21:00 UTC Not started
01.09.2026 21:00 UTC Not started
Guerrieri A
Guerrieri A
Rank #7 Elo 3650
65Average Form
L W W L W L W W
De Minaur A
De Minaur A
Rank #187 Elo 301
73Good Form
L W L W W L W W
-:-
Coverage: grass
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 De Minaur A — 91%

1 · Guerrieri A9.3%
market 7%
2 · De Minaur A ✓ Pick90.7%
market 93%

Model estimate: win Guerrieri A 9.3%, win De Minaur A 90.7%. Model favourite — De Minaur A.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — De Minaur A

Model confidence 93% ~95% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Guerrieri A - De Minaur A September 1, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: De Minaur A. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 14.28 / 2 1.02

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 7 books · best price +1.1%
1 6.8%
2 ✓ Pick 93.2%

Odds source: consensus of 7 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 11.50 ↑ 12.00
Winner P2 1.04 → 1.04

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Guerrieri A
7%
16.00
De Minaur A
93%
1.04
Total
Over 5.5
50%
1.85
Under 5.5
50%
1.85

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Guerrieri A De Minaur A
Win % 63.8% 75%
Hard % 66.4% 0%
Clay % 60.7% 0%
Grass % 50% 0%
Deciding set % 63.7% 66.7%
Tie-breaks % 37.7% 100%
Titles (total) 4 0
Last 10 WWWLWLWWWW LWWW

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#7 Rating #187
27 Age 27
1.83m Height (cm) 1.80m
69kg Weight (kg) 75kg
Right Hand Left
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Guerrieri A De Minaur A
Aces per match 3.46 1.96
Double faults per match 2.94 4.04
Breaks per match 1.84 1.41

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Alex De Minaur
Rank:7 Elo: 3650
L W W L W L W W
Andrea Guerrieri
Rank:187 Elo: 301
L W L W W L W W
Elo favourite:De Minaur A (edge +3349 Elo)

Hard

Alex De MinaurAndrea Guerrieri
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 64.7% 11 / 17 Matches 73.1% 19 / 26 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 65.9% 27 / 41 Matches 74.4% 32 / 43 Matches

Clay

Alex De MinaurAndrea Guerrieri
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 54.6% 6 / 11 Matches 78.1% 25 / 32 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 54.6% 6 / 11 Matches 78.1% 25 / 32 Matches

Grass

Alex De MinaurAndrea Guerrieri
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 71.4% 5 / 7 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 71.4% 5 / 7 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 65.2% 30 / 46 Matches 72.7% 48 / 66 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 65.7% 46 / 70 Matches 73.5% 61 / 83 Matches
Current rank 7 187

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri
Prize money (career) $19,673,027 USD $64,293 USD
Rating 7 187
Age 27 27
Height 1.83m 1.80m
Weight 69kg 75kg
Playing hand Right-handed Left-handed

Win percentage (match / set)

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri
Match Wins 65 % 73 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 63 % 75 %
Match Wins (5 Sets) 71 % 50 %
Wins in Straight Sets 46 % 47 %
Wins From Behind 24 % 36 %
Won At Least 1 Set 80 % 76 %
Set 1 Win 63 % 58 %
Set 2 Win 63 % 65 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri Match total
Average Games in a Set 9.96 9.91 9.94
Over 6.5 97 % 97 % 97 %
Over 7.5 91 % 85 % 88 %
Over 8.5 77 % 80 % 79 %
Over 9.5 54 % 55 % 55 %
Over 10.5 29 % 28 % 29 %
Over 11.5 29 % 28 % 29 %

Aces

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri Match total
Aces Per Match 3.46 1.96 5.42
Most Aces in a match 40 % 17 % N/A
1+ 97 % 66 % 98 %
2+ 77 % 43 % 94 %
3+ 60 % 30 % 90 %
4+ 40 % 21 % 73 %
5+ 26 % 13 % 69 %

Breaks

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri Match total
Breaks Per Match 1.84 1.41 3.25
Over 0.5 100 % 53 % 100 %
Over 1.5 43 % 53 % 77 %
Over 2.5 40 % 49 % 77 %
Over 3.5 3 % 2 % 60 %
Over 4.5 0 % 2 % 5 %
Over 5.5 0 % 2 % 3 %

Tie-breaks

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.49 0.3 0.39
Over 0.5 46 % 27 % 36 %
Over 1.5 3 % 3 % 3 %
Under 0.5 54 % 73 % 36 %
Under 1.5 97 % 97 % 3 %

Double faults

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri Match total
Double Faults Per Match 2.94 4.04 6.98
Over 0.5 (1+) 94 % 98 % 100 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 83 % 91 % 95 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 51 % 68 % 91 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 34 % 55 % 83 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 17 % 28 % 66 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 9 % 21 % 50 %

Net points

Alex De Minaur Andrea Guerrieri Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 7.64 6.55 14.19
Over 4.5 (5+) 69 % 58 % 64 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 59 % 35 % 47 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 52 % 26 % 39 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 41 % 16 % 29 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 38 % 13 % 26 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 38 % 13 % 26 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 16.00 6.1% BetBoom
P2 1.04 93.9% BetBoom

Guerrieri A host De Minaur A in tennis, in US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, on 1 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to De Minaur A: roughly 91% to win. Sportsbook prices (4 books) put that result at roughly 92%.

Latest form: Guerrieri A 4 won and 1 lost; De Minaur A 3 won and 2 lost. Guerrieri A arrive on a winning run. On the Glicko scale it is 1811 for Guerrieri A against 1856 for De Minaur A - a gap of 45 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 1-point gap to the market. On a hit-rate basis the steadier pick tilts to a covered market on De Minaur A - double chance looks calmer than a clean win. Key markers: an edge of 45 Glicko rating points, the model's 91% for De Minaur A. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

Playoff draw

Tournament bracket 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying

Qualification round 1
Gea, Arthur2
Nagal, Sumit0
Chidekh, Clement2
Coria, Federico0
Mikrut, Luka2
Sanchez Izquierdo, Nikolas0
Kouame, Moise1
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Moller, Elmer1
Neumayer, Lukas2
McCabe, James0
Squire, Henri1
Jorda Sanchis, David2
Kwon, Soonwoo0
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Justo, Guido Ivan0
Ilagan, Andre2
Boyer, Tristan1
Kym, Jerome2
Added, Dan0
Smith, Colton2
Pellegrino, Andrea1
Fearnley, Jacob2
Carballes Baena, Roberto0
Pavlovic, Luka2
Varillas, Juan Pablo1
Dedura-Palomero, Diego0
Ferreira Silva, Frederico2
Coppejans, Kimmer0
Rodionov, Jurij2
Droguet, Titouan1
Rincon, Daniel2
Lajal, Mark1
Lee, Jordan2
Den Ouden, Guy1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto2
Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos1
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Milavsky, Daniel0
Shick, Braden2
Tabur, Clement0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gill, Felix0
Martin Tiffon, Pol0
Gentzsch, Tom2
Samuel, Toby2
Maestrelli, Francesco1
Bueno, Gonzalo0
Harris, Billy2
Roncadelli, Franco0
Ymer, Elias2
Johnson, Spencer1
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Meligeni Alves, Felipe0
Smith, Keegan0
Galarneau, Alexis2
Brancaccio, Raul0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago2
Napolitano, Stefano0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Blanchet, Ugo0
Pinnington Jones, Jack2
Svajda, Trevor0
Skatov, Timofey2
Bailly, Gilles Arnaud0
Giustino, Lorenzo0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian2
Midon, Lautaro0
Gomez, Federico Agustin0
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Holmgren, August1
Schwaerzler, Joel2
Heide, Gustavo1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Noguchi, Rio1
Kolar, Zdenek0
Gojo, Borna2
Nardi, Luca0
Cina, Federico0
Echargui, Moez0
Dellien, Hugo2
Piros, Zsombor2
Alcala Gurri, Max0
Martinez, Pedro0
Glinka, Daniil2
Kasnikowski, Maks1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai2
Sakellaridis, Stefanos0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Mejia, Nicolas1
Draxl, Liam2
Daniel, Taro1
Johnson, Andrew2
Secord, Jack0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan2
Basilashvili, Nikoloz0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Feldbausch, Kilian0
Cecchinato, Marco2
Broady, Liam0
Bertola, Remy2
Moro Canas, Alejandro0
Wendelken, Harry2
Travaglia, Stefano1
Rocha, Henrique2
Mmoh, Michael0
Tomic, Bernard1
Harris, Lloyd2
Onclin, Gauthier0
Sachko, Vitaliy2
Bolt, Alex0
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Ofner, Sebastian1
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael2
Searle, Henry0
Clarke, Jay1
Sakamoto, Rei2
Djere, Laslo0
Muller, Alexandre2
Qualification round 2
Gea, Arthur2
Chidekh, Clement1
Mikrut, Luka0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Neumayer, Lukas0
Jorda Sanchis, David0
Lajovic, Dusan2
Gaston, Hugo2
Ilagan, Andre0
Kym, Jerome1
Smith, Colton2
Fearnley, Jacob2
Pavlovic, Luka1
Ferreira Silva, Frederico1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel2
Lee, Jordan1
Olivieri, Genaro Alberto0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro2
Shick, Braden0
Passaro, Francesco2
Gentzsch, Tom0
Samuel, Toby2
Harris, Billy1
Ymer, Elias0
Garin, Cristian2
Svrcina, Dalibor2
Galarneau, Alexis0
Seyboth Wild, Thiago0
McDonald, Mackenzie2
Virtanen, Otto2
Pinnington Jones, Jack1
Skatov, Timofey0
Dimitrov, Grigor2
Jacquet, Kyrian1
Dougaz, Aziz2
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Schwaerzler, Joel1
Bu, Yunchaokete2
Gojo, Borna0
Cina, Federico2
Dellien, Hugo1
Piros, Zsombor2
Glinka, Daniil1
Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai0
O'Connell, Christopher2
Draxl, Liam2
Johnson, Andrew0
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Hong, Seongchan0
Gaubas, Vilius2
Cecchinato, Marco0
Bertola, Remy1
Wendelken, Harry2
Rocha, Henrique1
Harris, Lloyd2
Sachko, Vitaliy1
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo2
Nishikori, Kei2
Antonius, Michael0
Sakamoto, Rei2
Muller, Alexandre0
Qualification Final
Gea, Arthur0
Basavareddy, Nishesh2
Wong, Coleman2
Lajovic, Dusan0
Gaston, Hugo2
Smith, Colton1
Fearnley, Jacob1
Rodionov, Jurij2
Rincon, Daniel0
Barrios Vera, Tomas2
Mochizuki, Shintaro0
Passaro, Francesco2
Samuel, Toby0
Garin, Cristian0
Svrcina, Dalibor2
McDonald, Mackenzie1
Virtanen, Otto0
Dimitrov, Grigor0
Dougaz, Aziz0
Guerrieri, Andrea2
Bu, Yunchaokete1
Cina, Federico2
Piros, Zsombor0
O'Connell, Christopher0
Draxl, Liam1
Schoolkate, Tristan2
Gaubas, Vilius1
Wendelken, Harry2
Harris, Lloyd2
Llamas Ruiz, Pablo0
Nishikori, Kei0
Sakamoto, Rei2

Playoff draw: gismo. For reference.

Match center
Start 01.09.2026 21:00 UTC
Market 1 6.7% @ 14.28 / 2 93.3% @ 1.02
Coverage grass
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model De Minaur A 91%
💹 Market De Minaur A 93%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Guerrieri A - De Minaur A

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Guerrieri A 8.0% 11.6% market and model agree
De Minaur A 92.0% 88.4% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko9.3% · +Elo prior (weight0.32).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 9.3% / 90.7% probabilities
Rating 1,811 / 1,856 Guerrieri A / De Minaur A
RD 128 / 187 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,556-2,067 / 1,482-2,231 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 90.7%
Total
Over 0.5 3.15 market consensus · line only
Over 10.5 4.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.43 69.9%
— — 1.22 82.0%
2.13 47.0% 2.13 47.0% —
1.80 55.6% 1.74 57.5% —
— — 2.60 38.5%
— — 3.80 26.3%
— — 5.80 17.2%
— — 1.11 90.1%
— — 1.20 83.3%
— — 1.33 75.2%
— — 1.57 63.7%
— — 1.98 50.5%
1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% —
1.99 50.3% 2.10 47.6% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
14.00 7.1%
1.01 99.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 26.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
Over 27.5 — — 1.62 61.7%
Over 28.5 1.84 54.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.85 54.1%
Over 29.5 1.98 50.5% 1.94 51.6% 2.02 49.5%
Over 30.5 — — 2.25 44.4%
Over 31.5 — — 2.45 40.8%
Over 32.5 — — 2.65 37.7%
Over 33.5 — — 2.85 35.1%
Under 26.5 — — 2.55 39.2%
Under 27.5 — — 2.15 46.5%
Under 28.5 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% —
Under 29.5 1.81 55.3% 1.86 53.8% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 3.5 2.75 36.4%
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4%
Match center

Odds · 3 bookmakers

Best price: 1 16 (Pari) · 2 1.04 (Winline)
Bookmaker12
Pari 16 1.02
Winline 11 1.04
Betcity 16 1.01
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Guerrieri A
W W W L W
2026-08-27 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Guerrieri A Dougaz A 0:2 Guerrieri A
2026-08-26 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Guerrieri A Guerrieri A 2:1 Schwaerzler J
2026-08-24 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Guerrieri A Guerrieri A 2:1 Holmgren A
2026-08-18 2026 Quebec City, Canada, Qualifying
Guerrieri A Kwon Soon Woo 2:0 Guerrieri A
2026-08-17 2026 Quebec City, Canada, Qualifying
Guerrieri A Donski A 1:2 Guerrieri A
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
80% Win percentage
De Minaur A
L W W L W
2026-08-19 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Fils A 2:0 De Minaur A De Minaur A
2026-08-17 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Fery A 0:2 De Minaur A De Minaur A
2026-08-15 2026 Cincinnati, USA
Halys Q 1:2 De Minaur A De Minaur A
2026-08-06 2026 Montreal, Canada
Norrie C 2:1 De Minaur A De Minaur A
2026-08-04 2026 Montreal, Canada
Duckworth J 0:2 De Minaur A De Minaur A
3 Wins
2 Losses
1.4 Sets won
1.0 Sets lost
60% Win percentage

More predictions

Guerrieri A – De Minaur A 01.09 Virtanen O – Rublev A 31.08 Arnaldi M – Duckworth J 31.08 Safiullin R. (Mir) – Alkaras K. (Isp) 31.08 Rodionov J – Mpetshi Perricard G 31.08 Landaluce M – Fearnley J 31.08

Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Guerrieri A vs De Minaur A?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to De Minaur A. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Guerrieri A vs De Minaur A?

Live odds for Guerrieri A vs De Minaur A from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Guerrieri A vs De Minaur A start?

September 1, 2026.