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AI verdict

AI pick Rincon D win probability ~63% confidence High best odds 1.43

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Rincon D. Full breakdown below.

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US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge International
26.08.2026 15:00 UTC

Rincon D - Lee Jordan

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
Tennis US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge
US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge grass 26.08.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
26.08.2026 15:00 UTC Not started
Rincon D
Rincon D
Rank #208 Elo 270
60Average Form
W L L L W L W W
Lee Jordan
Lee Jordan
Rank #1774 Elo 2
77Good Form
L W L W W W L W
-:-
Coverage: grass
Preview

Extended stats (scorego)

Rincon D Jordan
Win % 57.8% 0%
Hard % 59.5% 0%
Clay % 58% 0%
Grass % 0% 0%
Deciding set % 61.4% 0%
Tie-breaks % 51.9% 0%
Titles (total) 8 0
Last 10 WLLLWLWWWL LL

Source: scorego-app.com

About the athletes

- Country -
#208 Rating #1774
23 Age -
1.85m Height (cm) -
85kg Weight (kg) -
- Hand -
- Seed -
grass Coverage grass
0 H2H 0

Serve and return stats

Rincon D Lee Jordan
Aces per match 3.57 2.00
Double faults per match 1.89 3.4
Breaks per match 3 14

Source:tennisstats.com (per-match averages)

TennisStats: rating, form and serve/return

Daniel Rincon
Rank:208 Elo: 270
W L L L W L W W
Jordan Lee
Rank:1774 Elo: 2
L W L W W W L W
Elo favourite:Rincon D (edge +268 Elo)

Hard

Daniel RinconJordan Lee
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 44.4% 4 / 9 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 61.5% 8 / 13 Matches 50.0% 1 / 2 Matches
Aces Per Match 3.43 2.00
Most Aces in a match 29 % 0 %

Clay

Daniel RinconJordan Lee
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year 63.6% 21 / 33 Matches 33.3% 1 / 3 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months 58.5% 24 / 41 Matches 40.0% 2 / 5 Matches
Aces Per Match 3.62 N/A
Most Aces in a match 48 % N/A

Grass

Daniel RinconJordan Lee
Win Percentage 2026 Calendar Year N/A 0 / 0 Matches 100.0% 8 / 8 Matches
Win Percentage Last 12 Months N/A 0 / 0 Matches 100.0% 8 / 8 Matches
Aces Per Match N/A 2.00
Most Aces in a match N/A 33 %

Source:tennisstats.com

H2H series (tennisstats)

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee
H2H wins 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Sets 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Wins this year 59.5% 25 / 42 Matches 76.9% 10 / 13 Matches
Wins in 12 mo. 60.0% 33 / 55 Matches 73.3% 11 / 15 Matches
Current rank 208 1774

Source: tennisstats.com

Profile and percentages (tennisstats)

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee
Prize money (career) $287,128 USD $0 USD
Rating 208 1774
Age 23 —
Height 1.85m —
Weight 85kg —

Win percentage (match / set)

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee
Match Wins 60 % 77 %
Match Wins (3 Sets) 60 % 77 %
Wins in Straight Sets 31 % 54 %
Wins From Behind 32 % 40 %
Won At Least 1 Set 67 % 77 %
Set 1 Win 43 % 62 %
Set 2 Win 55 % 69 %
Set 3 Win 80 % 100 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Betting benchmarks (tennisstats)

Outcome percentages for totals and props: values for each player and a match-total column.

Total games

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee Match total
Average Games in a Set 10.21 9.15 9.68
Over 6.5 100 % 92 % 96 %
Over 7.5 95 % 85 % 90 %
Over 8.5 74 % 62 % 68 %
Over 9.5 50 % 46 % 48 %
Over 10.5 38 % 15 % 27 %
Over 11.5 38 % 15 % 27 %

Aces

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee Match total
Aces Per Match 3.57 2.00 5.57
Most Aces in a match 43 % 20 % N/A
1+ 86 % 60 % 97 %
2+ 82 % 60 % 97 %
3+ 57 % 60 % 93 %
4+ 39 % 20 % 86 %
5+ 39 % 0 % 81 %

Breaks

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee Match total
Breaks Per Match 3 14 17
Over 0.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 1.5 100 % 100 % 100 %
Over 2.5 96 % 100 % 100 %
Over 3.5 4 % 100 % 98 %
Over 4.5 0 % 100 % 98 %
Over 5.5 0 % 100 % 98 %

Tie-breaks

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee Match total
Tie Breaks Per Match 0.45 0.08 0.26
Over 0.5 38 % 8 % 23 %
Over 1.5 7 % 0 % 4 %
Under 0.5 62 % 92 % 23 %
Under 1.5 93 % 100 % 4 %

Double faults

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee Match total
Double Faults Per Match 1.89 3.4 5.29
Over 0.5 (1+) 82 % 100 % 97 %
Over 1.5 (2+) 61 % 80 % 93 %
Over 2.5 (3+) 21 % 60 % 86 %
Over 3.5 (4+) 14 % 40 % 81 %
Over 4.5 (5+) 7 % 20 % 65 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 4 % 20 % 43 %

Net points

Daniel Rincon Jordan Lee Match total
Net Points Won Per Match 10.04 9.88 19.92
Over 4.5 (5+) 79 % 100 % 90 %
Over 5.5 (6+) 64 % 100 % 82 %
Over 6.5 (7+) 50 % 75 % 63 %
Over 7.5 (8+) 36 % 50 % 43 %
Over 8.5 (9+) 36 % 50 % 43 %
Over 9.5 (10+) 36 % 50 % 43 %

Source:tennisstats.com

Odds
P1 1.60 62.2% BetBoom
P2 2.63 37.8% BetBoom

Rincon D meet Lee Jordan on August 26, 2026 in the US Open. Men. Qualifying Wild Card Challenge, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Rincon D 2-0-3, Lee Jordan 4-0-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Rincon D — 63%

1 · Rincon D ✓ Pick63.0%
market 65%
2 · Lee Jordan37.0%
market 35%

Model estimate: win Rincon D 63.0%, win Lee Jordan 37.0%. Model favourite — Rincon D.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Match winner — Rincon D

Model confidence 66% ~79% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rincon D - Lee Jordan August 26, 2026

Tennis math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Rincon D. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.43 / 2 2.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 6.7% 4 books
1 ✓ Pick 64.6%
2 35.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 1.60 → 1.60
Winner P2 2.35 ↓ 2.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Rincon D
65%
1.45
Lee Jordan
35%
2.80
Total
Over 22.5
52%
1.84
Under 22.5
48%
2.05

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

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Match center
Start 26.08.2026 15:00 UTC
Market 1 66.2% @ 1.43 / 2 33.8% @ 2.80
Coverage grass
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Rincon D 63%
💹 Market Rincon D 65%
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Match center

Rincon D - Lee Jordan

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Tennis math model. Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rincon D 64.3% 57.1% market and model agree
Lee Jordan 35.7% 42.9% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Model = Glicko + Elo strength prior (heuristic, historical calibration in progress). Glicko63.0% · +Elo prior (weight0.57).

Tennis math model
P1 / P2 63.0% / 37.0% probabilities
Rating 1,584 / 1,595 Rincon D / Jordan
RD 192 / 271 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,199-1,968 / 1,052-2,137 strength interval

Tennis without draws: the base signal comes from player rating, surface, form, serve/return and tournament fatigue. For live logic the set state and who is serving matter more than the overall points score.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.80 Fonbet · no value · model 37.0%
1 1.43 Fonbet · no value · model 63.0%
Total
Over 10.5 3.00 market consensus · line only
Over 2.5 2.30 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.55 64.5% —
1.77 56.5% 1.76 56.8%
2.20 45.5% —
— 1.99 50.3%
2.30 43.5% —
2.00 50.0% —
1.60 62.5% —

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.15 87.0%
2.17 46.1%
1.65 60.6%
4.70 21.3%

Total

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM
Over 2.5 — 2.25 44.4%
Over 8.5 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 9.5 — 1.65 60.6%
Over 10.5 — 3.00 33.3%
Over 21.5 — 1.58 63.3%
Over 22.5 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4%
Over 23.5 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5%
Over 24.5 2.02 49.5% 2.12 47.2%
Over 25.5 — 2.28 43.9%
Under 2.5 — 1.58 63.3%
Under 10.5 — 1.35 74.1%
Under 21.5 — 2.23 44.8%
Under 22.5 2.05 48.8% —
Under 23.5 1.73 57.8% —
Under 24.5 1.70 58.8% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 2.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 2.5 1.57 63.7%
Match center
Rincon D
W L L L W
2026-08-24 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Rincon D Droguet T 1:2 Rincon D
2026-08-04 2026 Hagen, Germany
Rincon D Piros Z 2:0 Rincon D
2026-07-27 2026 San Marino, San Marino
Rincon D Rincon D 1:2 Prado Angelo J C
2026-07-22 2026 Zug, Switzerland
Rincon D Rincon D 1:2 Seyboth Wild T
2026-07-20 2026 Zug, Switzerland
Rincon D Faurel T 1:2 Rincon D
2 Wins
3 Losses
1.2 Sets won
1.6 Sets lost
40% Win percentage
Lee Jordan
W L W W W
2026-08-24 2026 US Open, New York, USA, Qualifying
Lajal M 1:2 Lee Jordan Lee Jordan
2026-07-25 2026 Washington, USA, Qualifying
Lee Jordan 0:2 Echargui M Lee Jordan
2026-07-12 2026 Wimbledon, Boys
Lee Jordan 2:1 Hewitt Cruz Lee Jordan
2026-07-10 2026 Wimbledon, Boys
Reisach, Vincent Jakob 0:2 Lee Jordan Lee Jordan
2026-07-09 2026 Wimbledon, Boys
Paparkar, Arnav Vijay 0:2 Lee Jordan Lee Jordan
4 Wins
1 Losses
1.6 Sets won
0.8 Sets lost
80% Win percentage

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Frequently asked questions

When does Rincon D vs Lee Jordan start?

August 26, 2026.