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Connecticut — Phoenix Mercury (w)

Basketball 07.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Favourite Phoenix Mercury (w) best odds 1.45

AI analysis of team form, streaks and match statistics — full pick, probabilities and value below.

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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
07.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Connecticut - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Basketball
Connecticut
Connecticut
75 : 72
Finished
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)

Connecticut go head-to-head with Phoenix Mercury (w) on August 7, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Connecticut 1-0-4, Phoenix Mercury (w) 3-0-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Connecticut - Phoenix Mercury (w) August 7, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Phoenix Mercury (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.86 / 2 1.45

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 4.5% 5 books
1 33.6%
2 66.4%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Connecticut
34%
2.86
Phoenix Mercury (w)
66%
1.45
Total
Over 173.5
50%
1.90
Under 173.5
50%
1.93

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Connecticut
#7GP 369-27
Phoenix Mercury (w)
#6GP 3713-24

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

28Wins20
83.0Points on average80.8

Head-to-head matches: 48 · average total 163.8 (points)

Team form

Connecticut
2-8LLLLWLLWLL
points for 77.3points against 90.5
Phoenix Mercury (w)
4-6WWLWLLLWLL
points for 87.2points against 90.6

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 07.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Market 1 33.6% @ 2.86 / 2 66.4% @ 1.45
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Match center

Connecticut - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.44 market consensus · line only
1 2.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 15.5 1.98 market consensus · line only
Over 162.5 1.26 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3%
1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3%
1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8%
1.87 53.5%
1.92 52.1%
1.87 53.5%
1.84 54.4%
1.98 50.5%
1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1%
1.95 51.3% 1.94 51.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 15.5 1.98 50.5%
Over 162.5 1.26 79.4%
Over 163.5 1.29 77.5%
Over 164.5 1.36 73.5%
Over 171.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 172.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 173.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
Over 174.5 1.87 53.5% 1.92 52.1%
Over 175.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 171.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 172.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 173.5 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
Under 174.5 1.93 51.8% 1.88 53.2%
Under 175.5 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
2.80 35.7% 2.80 35.7% 2.85 35.1% 2.85 35.1% 2.86 35.0%
1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 7-0-3
2026-08-07 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 75:72 Finiks Merkuri (Zh)
2026-07-19 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 63:72 Finiks Merkuri (Zh)
2026-07-18 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 96:83 Finiks Merkuri (Zh)
2025-09-06 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 87:84 Finiks Merkuri (Zh)
2025-08-06 · Konnektikut San (Zh) 66:82 Finiks Merkuri (Zh)
Source: ruscore

Match stats

50 Ball possession 50
37 2-kh broskov vsego 40
20 2-kh realizovano 22
20 3-kh broskov vsego 28
7 3-kh realizovano 5
20 Shtrafnykh broskov vsego 23
14 Shtrafnykh broskov realizovano 13
34 Vsego podborov 29
3 Podbory v napadenii 6
31 Podbory v zaschite 23
20 Rezultativnye peredachi 19
5 Blok-shoty 1
18 Poteri 10
5 Perekhvaty 10
24 Fouls 21
6 Half-auty 5
0 Komandnye poteri myacha 1
10 Komandnye podbory 14
288 Vremya v liderstve 1801
3 Komanda lidiruet 3
4 Maksimalnoe preimuschestvo 16
Source: ruscore
Connecticut
L L L L W
02.08 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 63:83 Dallas Vings (Zh)Dallas Vings (Zh)
30.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 88:94 Chikago Skay (Zh)Chikago Skay (Zh)
28.07 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 84:92 Vashington Mistiks (Zh)Vashington Mistiks (Zh)
22.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 88:123 Indiana Fiver (Zh)Indiana Fiver (Zh)
19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Connecticut 96:83 Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
1 Wins
4 Losses
83.8 Scored
95.0 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Phoenix Mercury (w)
L W L W
05.08 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 82:96 Atlanta Drim (Zh)Atlanta Drim (Zh)
04.08 01:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 106:101 Chikago Skay (Zh)Chikago Skay (Zh)
01.08 19:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 92:94 Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
22.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
2 Wins
2 Losses
91.5 Scored
93.3 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Connecticut - Phoenix Mercury (w)

Connecticut
2 matches total
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Connecticut: 0 (0%)
Phoenix Mercury (w): 2 (100%)
Biggest win Konnektikut San (Zh) 96:83 (19.07 21:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 179 points (96:83, 19.07 21:00 UTC) most points in a game

Match history

19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Konnektikut San (Zh)
96:83
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
18.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Konnektikut San (Zh)
96:83
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)

Frequently asked questions

When does Connecticut vs Phoenix Mercury (w) start?

August 7, 2026.