Who is the favourite in Fiorentina vs Benevento?

By the PropickAI model, Fiorentina is favoured — about 74% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Fiorentina vs Benevento?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Fiorentina. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

AI verdict

AI pick Fiorentina win probability ~74% confidence High best odds 1.01

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Fiorentina. Full breakdown below.

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Italy. Serie B

Round of 64 14.08.2026 19:15 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

14.08.2026 19:15 UTC Round of 64

Finished

Italy. Serie B

Fiorentina - Benevento

Football

Stadium Artemio Franki (Florence, Italy)

Capacity 17 554

Fiorentina

4 : 1

Finished

Benevento

Fiorentina take on Benevento on August 14, 2026 in the Italy. Serie B.

Recent form (W-D-L): Fiorentina 2-2-1, Benevento 4-1-0. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 74% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Fiorentina — 74%

1 · Fiorentina ✓ Pick73.8%

market 77%

X · draw16.2%

market 16%

2 · Benevento10.0%

market 8%

Model estimate: win Fiorentina 73.8%, draw 16.2%, win Benevento 10.0%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Fiorentina (odds1.29) Score 2:0 Under 2.5 (odds2.10) Handicap H1 -1.5 (odds1.85) confidence 62% ✓ outcome correct

• Model backs Fiorentina: probability 62% vs 78% on the line (odds 1.29)
• no edge over the line (-16 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:0
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 2.10)
• Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 2:0 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Benevento August 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite Fonbet: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 6.00 / 2 13.20
Glicko: Fiorentina 73.8% / X 16.2% / Benevento 10.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1% 6 books · best price +1.6%

1 ✓ Pick 76.7%

X 15.6%

2 7.7%

Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 1 1.30 → 1.30

1X2 X 5.20 ↑ 5.30

1X2 2 10.00 ↑ 11.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Coppa Italia

League table

Fiorentina

#13 ptsGP 11-0-04:1

Benevento

#73 ptsGP 21-0-16:7

Best price across 13 books

1 1.29 Superbet

X 6.32 Pinnacle

2 15.00 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Fiorentina

W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 1.24 Conceded 1.75 xG 1.47 xGA 1.12 Corners 5.5

Benevento

W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 3.40 Conceded 2.75 xG 1.49 xGA 1.11 Corners 4.2

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Fiorentina

76%

1.25

Draw

16%

6.10

Benevento

23.00

Total

Over 3

49%

1.92

Under 3

51%

2.95

Both teams to score

Yes

27%

15.00

73%

1.65

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Fiorentina 2 : 1 Benevento

11.22

X5.95

211.60

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

897 predictions Choose an outcome

1 95% 858

X 3% 27

2 1% 12

Match center

Stadium Artemio Franki (Florence, Italy)

Start 14.08.2026 19:15 UTC

Market 1 80.3% @ 1.01 / X 13.5% @ 6.00 / 2 6.1% @ 13.20

Broadcasts MATCh! Football 1, MEGOGO

Capacity 17,554

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community Fiorentina 95%

📐 Math model Fiorentina 74%

💹 Market Fiorentina 77%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Fiorentina - Benevento

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Fiorentina - Benevento, 14 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup Italy po futbolu 2026/27, 1/32 finala. Fiorentina - Benevento, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Lineups 11/10 probable starting lineup

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 6 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:1

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.8% fact: home hit / ROI 30.0% / Brier 0.105 / LogLoss 0.304

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.8% fact: home hit / ROI 30.0% / Brier 0.105 / LogLoss 0.304

Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.8% fact: home hit / ROI 30.0% / Brier 0.105 / LogLoss 0.304

Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 73.8% fact: home hit / ROI 30.0% / Brier 0.105 / LogLoss 0.304

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Fiorentina 76.2% 73.8% market and model agree

Draw 15.8% 16.2% draw risk

Benevento 8.0% 10.0%

1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 73.8% / 16.2% / 10.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,500 / 1,658 Fiorentina / Benevento

RD 350 / 291 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,076-2,240 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 6.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 73.8%

Double chance

12 1.12 Fonbet · no value · model 83.8%

1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 90.0%

X2 3.78 market consensus · no value · model 26.2%

Handicap

2 -1 3.90 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.20 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.20 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 4.10 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
no	1.40 71.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.65 60.6%
yes	2.80 35.7%	15.00 6.7%	15.00 6.7%	2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet
12	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%	1.12 89.3%	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%
1x	1.01 99.0%	1.01 99.0%	1.01 99.0%	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%
x2	4.00 25.0%	4.00 25.0%	12.50 8.0%	3.55 28.2%	3.55 28.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.58 63.3%
X	2.83 35.3%
	10.80 9.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.55 64.5%
Over 1.5	2.15 46.5%
Under 1	2.30 43.5%
Under 1.5	1.62 61.7%

Match center

4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1

43 David De Khea 17 Zhuan Mariu 3 Radu Dragushin 6 Luka Raneri 21 Valde 27 Sher Ndur 44 Nikolo Fadzholi 4 Marko Breshianini 14 Artur Atta 11 Albert Gyudmyundsson 9 Moyze Kin 26 Dzhanmarko Vannukki 17 Leonardo Sernikola 14 Stefano Skonyamillo 5 Luka Kaldirola 20 Petro Beruatto 8 M. Maita 4 A. Prisco 11 D. Lamesta 38 A. Talia 24 Marko Dzhuliano

Fiorentina

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

43 DD David De Khea

David De Khea

17 ZM Zhuan Mariu

Zhuan Mariu

3 RD Radu Dragushin

Radu Dragushin

6 LR Luka Raneri

Luka Raneri

21 V Valde

Valde

27 SN Sher Ndur

Sher Ndur

44 NF Nikolo Fadzholi

Nikolo Fadzholi

4 MB Marko Breshianini

Marko Breshianini

14 AA Artur Atta

Artur Atta

11 AG Albert Gyudmyundsson

Albert Gyudmyundsson

9 MK Moyze Kin

Moyze Kin

Head coach Fabio Grosso

Benevento

Formation 4-2-3-1

Probable starting lineup

26 DV Dzhanmarko Vannukki

Dzhanmarko Vannukki

17 LS Leonardo Sernikola

Leonardo Sernikola

14 SS Stefano Skonyamillo

Stefano Skonyamillo

5 LK Luka Kaldirola

Luka Kaldirola

20 PB Petro Beruatto

Petro Beruatto

8 MM M. Maita

M. Maita

4 AP A. Prisco

11 DL D. Lamesta

D. Lamesta

38 AT A. Talia

A. Talia

24 MD Marko Dzhuliano

Head coach Antonio Floro Flores

Fiorentina

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Benevento

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

SStats Market - Form - H2H - Table

Match center

10 Matches 10

18 Goals 20

1.8 Per match 2.0

4 Wins 6

4 Draws 3

2 Losses 1

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 5.0 gls

2026-08-14 · Fiorentina 4:1 Benevento

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.31 (Liga Stavok) · X 6 (Betcity) · 2 13 (Betcity)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.25	5.5	12
Winline	1.3	5	9
Fonbet	1.25	5.5	12
Betcity	1.22	6	13
Liga Stavok	1.31	5	9

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

58 Ball possession 42

13 Vsego udarov 12

7 Shots on target 6

5 Shots off target 5

10 Udary ot vorot 8

1 Blokirovannye udary 1

12 Shtrafnye 7

4 Corners 5

2 Offsides 1

13 Auty 13

5 Saves 3

1 Cards total 1

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

0 Second yellows 0

0 Travmy 1

5 Substitutions 5

Source: ruscore

Fiorentina

D D W L W

2026-08-06 Club Friendly Games 2026

Fiorentina Fiorentina 1:1 Deportivo La Coruna

2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026

Fiorentina Real Madrid 2:2 Fiorentina

2026-07-29 Club Friendly Games 2026

Fiorentina Watford 0:1 Fiorentina

2026-07-25 Club Friendly Games 2026

Fiorentina QPR 3:2 Fiorentina

2026-07-22 Club Friendly Games 2026

Fiorentina Fiorentina 1:0 Gubbio

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

8 Points

Benevento

W D W W W

2026-08-09 Coppa Italia 26/27

Benevento 5:3 Ravenna Benevento

2026-08-01 Club Friendly Games 2026

Frosinone 2:2 Benevento Benevento

2026-07-31 Club Friendly Games 2026

Vis Pesaro 1:2 Benevento Benevento

2026-07-19 Club Friendly Games 2026

Benevento 22:0 Asd Calvi Benevento

2026-05-16 Supercoppa Serie C 2026

Vicenza 1:4 Benevento Benevento

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

7.0 Scored

1.4 Conceded

13 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Fiorentina - Benevento

Fiorentina

6 matches total

Benevento

Fiorentina: 2 (33.3%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Benevento: 4 (66.7%)

Biggest win Benevento 1:4 (13.03.21, 10:00) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 13.03.21, 10:00) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 12

12 Goals conceded 4

Match history

Event

Fiorentina

2:1

Benevento

Event

Fiorentina

1:4

Benevento

Event

Fiorentina

0:1

Benevento

Event

Fiorentina

0:3

Benevento

Event

Fiorentina

1:0

Benevento

Event

Fiorentina

0:3

Benevento

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Fiorentina

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Benevento

0 Games 1

0 Wins 1

0 Draws 0

0 Losses 0

0 Scored 5

0 Conceded 3

0 Points 3

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Udary v stvor 0

Matches in history 6

Highest-scoring match 1:4

Cup Italy 1 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 1

Seriya A 4 / 3 / 0 / 1 / 8 / 2

Tovarischeskiy (kluby) 1 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 3

Fiorentina Benevento 0 Games 1 0 Wins 1 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 5 0 Conceded 3 0 Points 3 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Albert Gudmundsson 1:0 2' Moyze Kin 2:0 35' Luka Raneri 3:0 47' Sher Ndur 4:0 50' Davide Lamesta 4:1 54' Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Fabio Grosso Glavnye trenery No dannykh Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 59% 25% 16% Double chance 42% 37% 21% Materialy po prognozam Obizhennye anglichane and tretya popytka «Fiorentiny». Kto vyigraet Ligu konferentsiy? U «Chelsi» No konkurentov. Ili est? Chego zhdat ot playoff Ligi konferentsiy Italy lishaetsya nagrad. «Fiorentina» povtorit sudbu «Romy» v matche s «Vest Khemom» «Fiorentina» — «Vest Khem». Moyes sokhranit rabotu «Fiorentina» — «Roma». Mourinyu prodlit seriyu bez pobed «Fiorentina» — «Inter». Lukaku and Martines derzhat temp «Torino» — «Fiorentina». Eks-poluzaschitnik CSKA podstrakhuet Miranchuka «Bazel» — «Fiorentina». Morgat nelzya! «Fiorentina» — «Bazel». Zapasaytes popkornom «Napoli» — «Fiorentina». V chest chempionstva! CHAMP('pag

Fiorentina - Benevento

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Benevento August 14, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Statistics and model

Forecast by market

Score prediction

Buy the full AI analysis

Fiorentina - Benevento

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Form & head-to-head

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Match stats

Overall statistics

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions