28.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Match prediction
Netherlands: First Division
Den Bosch take on Vitesse in football, in Netherlands: First Division, on 28 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Vitesse as the favourite at around 41%. Sportsbook prices (5 books) put that result at roughly 42%. The model puts the chance of a draw at 24%.
Recent form reads: Den Bosch have 1 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost of their last 2; Vitesse have 2 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost of 3. Glicko ratings: Den Bosch 1660, Vitesse 1527, a gap of 133 points.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is low. That is a 1-point gap to the market. The match is close, and the model flags no clear safer edge. Key markers: an edge of 133 Glicko rating points, the model's 41% for Vitesse. Read on for team stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI AI prediction. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Double chance — Vitesse or draw 1.18
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 6 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Market-implied probability from the frozen pre-kickoff consensus line — reference, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Play-by-play
Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.17 85.5% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.84 35.2% |
| yes | 4.15 24.1% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.39 71.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.63 61.4% | 1.63 61.4% | 10.00 10.0% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.41 70.9% |
| x2 | 1.41 70.9% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.39 29.5% | |
| X | 2.48 40.3% |
| 2.62 38.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.05 48.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.69 59.2% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.18 |
| Winline | 2.65 | 3.8 | 2.23 |
| Fonbet | 2.55 | 3.85 | 2.18 |
| Betcity | 2.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.24 |
Den Bosch
Vitesse
Full head-to-head history: Den Bosch - Vitesse
The Den Bosch - Vitesse breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Vitesse. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Den Bosch vs Vitesse from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
August 28, 2026.
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