AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Jong Ajax. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
28.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Netherlands: First Division
Jong Ajax meet Helmond Sport on August 28, 2026 in the Netherlands: First Division.
Recent form (W-D-L): Jong Ajax 0-0-2, Helmond Sport 0-1-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Jong Ajax — 49%
Model estimate: win Jong Ajax 49.3%, draw 19.7%, win Helmond Sport 31.0%. Model favourite — Jong Ajax.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.32 43.1% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.56 39.1% |
| yes | 4.30 23.3% | 4.30 23.3% | 1.47 68.0% |
| Outcome | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
| x2 | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.63 38.0% | |
| X | 2.39 41.8% |
| 3.56 28.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.24 44.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.58 63.3% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2 | 3.95 | 2.8 |
| Winline | 2.08 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| Fonbet | 2 | 3.95 | 2.8 |
| Betcity | 2.07 | 4 | 2.85 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.09 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
Emmen
Dordrekht
Helmond Sport
Valveyk
Roda
Full head-to-head history: Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport
The Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 28, 2026.
