AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Breda. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
28.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Netherlands: First Division
Roda go head-to-head with Breda on August 28, 2026 in the Netherlands: First Division.
Recent form (W-D-L): Roda 2-0-1, Breda 1-0-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Breda — 40%
Model estimate: win Roda 33.4%, draw 26.8%, win Breda 39.8%. Model favourite — Breda.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.44 41.0% |
| yes | 1.52 65.8% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.29 77.5% | 1.27 78.7% |
| 1x | 1.58 63.3% | 1.57 63.7% |
| x2 | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.51 28.5% | |
| X | 2.30 43.5% |
| 2.77 36.1% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.57 63.7% |
| Under 1 | 2.26 44.3% |
Roda
Dordrekht
Khelmond
Emmen
Breda
Full head-to-head history: Roda - Breda
The Roda - Breda breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 28, 2026.
