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WNBA. Outrights
WNBA. Outrights
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

WNBA. Outrights

Phoenix Mercury (w) - NY Liberty

Basketball
Phoenix Mercury (w)
Phoenix Mercury (w)
92 : 94
Finished
NY Liberty
NY Liberty

Phoenix Mercury (w) face NY Liberty on August 1, 2026 in the WNBA. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Phoenix Mercury (w) 2-0-3, NY Liberty 3-0-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2NY Liberty (odds1.77) Score 79:81 confidence 59% ✓ outcome correct
  • Finiks Merkyuri (Zh): forma VVPPP (2-3)
  • Nyu-York Liberti (Zh): forma VVVPP (3-2)
  • ochnye 0-2 (za 2)
  • Model backs Nyu-York Liberti (Zh): probability 59% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.77)
  • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Phoenix Mercury (w) - NY Liberty August 1, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: NY Liberty. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.25 / 2 1.68

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.3% 3 books
1 43.0%
2 57.0%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Phoenix Mercury (w)
#6GP 3513-22
NY Liberty
#4GP 3420-14

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Phoenix Mercury (w)
5-5LWWWLWLLLW
points for 85.3points against 87.8
NY Liberty
8-2WWWLWWWWLW
points for 97.5points against 92.4

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 42.7% @ 2.25 / 2 57.3% @ 1.68
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

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Match center

Phoenix Mercury (w) - NY Liberty

Form 4/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 57.2% fact: away hit / ROI 68.0% / Brier 0.367 / LogLoss 0.559
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form away - 52.9% fact: away hit / ROI 68.0% / Brier 0.444 / LogLoss 0.637
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.67 market consensus · line only
1 2.22 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 175.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Over 176 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6%
1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 175.5 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5%
Over 176 1.90 52.6%
Over 176.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4%
Over 177.5 1.94 51.6% 1.94 51.6%
Over 179.5 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8%
Under 175.5 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8%
Under 176.5 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3%
Under 177.5 1.86 53.8% 1.86 53.8%
Under 179.5 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4%
1.67 59.9% 1.66 60.2% 1.68 59.5%
Match center
Phoenix Mercury (w)
W L L L
22.07 17:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 86:82 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
19.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
18.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 83:96 Konnektikut San (Zh)Konnektikut San (Zh)
13.07 23:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Phoenix Mercury (w) 100:104 Minnesota Links (Zh)Minnesota Links (Zh)
1 Wins
3 Losses
88.0 Scored
94.5 Conceded
25% Win percentage
NY Liberty
L W W W L
31.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
NY Liberty 99:104 Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)Las Vegas Eyses (Zh)
29.07 00:00 UTC USA: VNBA
NY Liberty 113:109 Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)Los-Andzheles Sparks (Zh)
22.07 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
NY Liberty 95:94 Chikago Skay (Zh)Chikago Skay (Zh)
20.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
NY Liberty 99:98 Dallas Vings (Zh)Dallas Vings (Zh)
18.07 22:00 UTC USA: VNBA
NY Liberty 88:108 Indiana Fiver (Zh)Indiana Fiver (Zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
98.8 Scored
102.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury (w) - NY Liberty

Phoenix Mercury (w)
2 matches total
NY Liberty
Phoenix Mercury (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
NY Liberty: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Nyu-York Liberti (Zh) 74:84 (27.05 21:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 158 goals (74:84, 27.05 21:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

29.05 21:30 UTC USA: VNBA
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
68:75
Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)
27.05 21:00 UTC USA: VNBA
Finiks Merkyuri (Zh)
74:84
Nyu-York Liberti (Zh)

Frequently asked questions

When does Phoenix Mercury (w) vs NY Liberty start?

August 1, 2026.