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AI verdict

AI pick Cagliari win probability ~60% confidence High best odds 1.02

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Cagliari. Full breakdown below.

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Italy. Serie B
Italy. Serie B
Round of 64 14.08.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
14.08.2026 16:30 UTC Round of 64
Finished

Italy. Serie B

Cagliari - Arezzo

Football
Stadium Unipol Domus (Kalyari, Italy)
Capacity 16 416
Cagliari
Cagliari
1 : 0
Finished
Arezzo
Arezzo

Cagliari face Arezzo on August 14, 2026 in the Italy. Serie B.

Recent form (W-D-L): Cagliari 3-2-0, Arezzo 1-2-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 60% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Cagliari — 60%

1 · Cagliari ✓ Pick60.2%
market 61%
X · draw23.0%
market 23%
2 · Arezzo16.8%
market 16%

Model estimate: win Cagliari 60.2%, draw 23.0%, win Arezzo 16.8%. Model favourite — Cagliari.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Cagliari (odds1.35) Score 1:0 Under 2.5 (odds2.00) ✓ Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds1.75) confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct · exact score
  • • Model backs Kalyari: probability 50% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.35)
  • • no edge over the line (-24 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.00)
  • • Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 1:0 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.75).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cagliari - Arezzo August 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cagliari.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cagliari. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / X 5.80 / 2 7.30
  • Glicko: Cagliari 60.2% / X 23.0% / Arezzo 16.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0% 5 books · best price +2.6%
1 ✓ Pick 61.3%
X 23.0%
2 15.7%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.40 ↑ 1.65
1X2 X 4.60 ↓ 3.70
1X2 2 7.50 ↓ 5.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Coppa Italia
Best price across 13 books
1 1.62 Betano
X 4.60 Superbet
2 7.60 Superbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Cagliari
W-D-L 3-4-3 Scored 1.47 Conceded 1.34 xG 1.42 xGA 1.24 Corners 5.4
Arezzo
W-D-L 3-0-4 Scored 1.63 Conceded 0.75 xG 1.32 xGA 1.13

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Cagliari
62%
1.58
Draw
23%
5.80
Arezzo
15%
39.00
Total
Over 2.5
50%
10.50
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Both teams to score
Yes
33%
8.50
No
67%
1.81

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Cagliari 1 : 1 Arezzo
11.57
X3.94
25.47

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
881 predictions Choose an outcome
1 95% 844
X 3% 30
2 0% 7
Match center
Stadium Unipol Domus (Kalyari, Italy)
Start 14.08.2026 16:30 UTC
Market 1 76.0% @ 1.02 / X 13.4% @ 5.80 / 2 10.6% @ 7.30
Broadcasts MEGOGO
Capacity 16,416
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Cagliari 95%
📐 Math model Cagliari 60%
💹 Market Cagliari 61%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Cagliari - Arezzo

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Kalyari - Aretstso, 14 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup Italy po futbolu 2026/27, 1/32 finala. Kalyari - Aretstso, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Lineups 11/10 probable starting lineup
Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 60.2% fact: home hit / ROI 65.0% / Brier 0.239 / LogLoss 0.507
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 60.2% fact: home hit / ROI 65.0% / Brier 0.239 / LogLoss 0.507
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cagliari 61.3% 60.2% market and model agree
Draw 23.0% 23.0% draw risk
Arezzo 15.7% 16.8%
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.2% / 23.0% / 16.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Cagliari / Arezzo
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.44 market consensus · no value · model 16.8%
X 5.80 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 60.2%
Double chance
12 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 77.0%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 83.2%
X2 10.00 Fonbet · no value · model 39.8%
Handicap
2 -1 2.50 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 0.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Yes 6.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 1.06 94.3% 1.77 56.5% 1.77 56.5% 1.81 55.3%
yes 6.90 14.5% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.19 84.0% 1.19 84.0%
1x 1.07 93.5% 1.07 93.5% 1.01 99.0% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9%
x2 2.75 36.4% 2.80 35.7% 10.00 10.0% 2.32 43.1% 2.32 43.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.10 47.6%
X 2.31 43.3%
5.80 17.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.82 55.0%
Under 1 1.88 53.2%
Match center
4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1
1 Eliya Kaprile 2 Ze Pedro 14 Alessandro Deyola 15 J. Rodríguez 33 Adam Obert 10 Yakopo Fatstsini 6 Kharri Uinks 4 A. Romano 8 Mishel Ndari Adopo 19 Yael Trepi 31 Pol Mendi 14 Alessandro Nuntsiante 6 Alessandro Rentsi 5 J. Illanes 37 Samuele Rigetti 16 M. Sala 24 L. Chierico 17 Artur Ionitse 30 A. Arena 11 Muhamed Djamanca 21 C. Tavernelli
Cagliari
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
1 EKEliya Kaprile Eliya Kaprile
2 ZPZe Pedro Ze Pedro
14 ADAlessandro Deyola Alessandro Deyola
15 JRJ. Rodríguez J. Rodríguez
33 AOAdam Obert Adam Obert
10 YFYakopo Fatstsini Yakopo Fatstsini
6 KUKharri Uinks Kharri Uinks
4 ARA. Romano A. Romano
8 MNMishel Ndari Adopo Mishel Ndari Adopo
19 YT Yael Trepi
31 PM Pol Mendi
Head coach Fabio Pizakane
Arezzo
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
14 ANAlessandro Nuntsiante Alessandro Nuntsiante
6 ARAlessandro Rentsi Alessandro Rentsi
5 JIJ. Illanes J. Illanes
37 SRSamuele Rigetti Samuele Rigetti
16 MSM. Sala M. Sala
24 LCL. Chierico L. Chierico
17 AIArtur Ionitse Artur Ionitse
30 AAA. Arena A. Arena
11 MDMuhamed Djamanca Muhamed Djamanca
21 CTC. Tavernelli C. Tavernelli
Cagliari

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Arezzo

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1
SStats Market - Form - Table - Bookmakers
Match center
Cagliari Team form Arezzo
10 Matches 10
10 Goals 19
1.0 Per match 1.9
5 Wins 4
3 Draws 2
2 Losses 4

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 1.0 gls
2026-08-14 · Kalyari 1:0 Aretstso
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.41 (Betcity) · X 4.6 (Betcity) · 2 8 (Winline)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.4 4.5 7.4
Winline 1.37 4.5 8
Fonbet 1.4 4.5 7.4
Betcity 1.41 4.6 7.3
Liga Stavok 1.38 4.5 8
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

48 Ball possession 52
12 Vsego udarov 13
3 Shots on target 3
5 Shots off target 7
10 Udary ot vorot 5
4 Blokirovannye udary 3
8 Shtrafnye 16
3 Corners 4
0 Offsides 0
13 Auty 17
3 Saves 2
2 Cards total 2
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
0 Travmy 1
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Cagliari
D D W D W
2026-08-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cagliari Cagliari 0:0 Nice
2026-08-02 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cagliari Union Berlin 2:2 Cagliari
2026-07-28 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cagliari Cagliari 1:0 Modena
2026-07-23 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cagliari Cagliari 0:0 Sampdoria
2026-05-24 Serie A 25/26
Cagliari Milan 1:2 Cagliari
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Arezzo
W D L L D
2026-08-09 Coppa Italia 26/27
Arezzo 2:0 Union Brescia Arezzo
2026-07-30 Club Friendly Games 2026
Parma 1:1 Arezzo Arezzo
2026-07-29 Club Friendly Games 2026
Arezzo 1:3 Albinoleffe Arezzo
2026-07-26 Club Friendly Games 2026
Atalanta 3:2 Arezzo Arezzo
2026-07-25 Club Friendly Games 2026
Arezzo 1:1 Caratese Arezzo
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCagliari - Arezzo

Cagliari
0 matches total
Arezzo
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Cagliari
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Arezzo
Cagliari Team comparison Arezzo
0 Games 1
0 Wins 1
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 2
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 3
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
Matches in history 5
Biggest draw 2:2
Highest-scoring match 2:2
Cup Italy 5 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 6 / 7

Kalyari Aretstso 0 Games 1 0 Wins 1 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 2 0 Conceded 0 Points 3 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly 1:0 23' Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Fabio Pizakane Glavnye trenery No dannykh Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 56% 26% 18% Double chance 41% 37% 22% Materialy po prognozam «Kalyari» — «Milan». Prognoz: Zlatan Ibragimovich ne spaset rossoneri ot problem «Yuventus» — «Kalyari». Prognoz: Krishtianu Ronaldu sduetsya na nashikh glazakh «Darmshtadt» and «Kalyari». Stavim protiv uzhasno igrayuschikh v gostyakh Izmozhdennyy «Bayer» ne uspeet vosstanovitsya k matchu s «Shalke» Kubkovyy prioritet «Loko» sygraet v ego polzu CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1329616' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Cup Italy Turnirnaya Standings

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cagliari vs Arezzo?

By the PropickAI model, Cagliari is favoured — about 60% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Cagliari vs Arezzo?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Cagliari. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Cagliari vs Arezzo start?

August 14, 2026.